ISW: Putin is demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire
Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected meaningful ceasefire negotiations for Ukraine, instead demanding the country's "irreversible" demilitarization, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War reported on 4 July that Russian President Vladimir Putin has explicitly rejected Russian participation in meaningful ceasefire negotiations for Ukraine, instead demanding Ukraine’s “irreversible” “demilitarization” as a precondition.
According to the ISW, this stance effectively calls for Ukraine’s surrender before any ceasefire agreement can be reached.
At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 4 July, Putin commented on the prospects of a negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine. The ISW notes that instead of his typical “feigned interest” in such negotiations, Putin “outright rejected any ceasefire negotiation process.”
The report highlights that Putin has dismissed all potential mediators for an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, including Western parties he had previously portrayed as his envisioned negotiating partners.
Putin’s primary demand, as reported by the ISW, is Ukraine’s “demilitarization” as a prerequisite for any ceasefire agreement. The Russian president insists that these measures be “irreversible,” arguing that Russia cannot allow the Ukrainian military to use a ceasefire to reconstitute its forces.
The ISW points out that Putin did not address the likelihood that Russian forces would use a similar potential ceasefire. The institute assesses that “Russia would use the respite of a ceasefire to reconstitute and expand its forces and to further mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB) for future aggression aiming to destroy the Ukrainian state.”
The report suggests that Putin’s rejection of any ceasefire agreement short of Ukrainian capitulation indicates his confidence in Russia’s ability to achieve victory through continued advances in Ukraine, outlasting Western support, and winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
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