ISW: Russia aims to undermine Ukraine’s grain corridor through repeated Odesa port attacks

Russian forces launched a ballistic missile strike on the port of Odesa on 14 October, damaging two civilian vessels and port infrastructure, according to Odesa Oblast officials. The attack killed one and injured eight civilians, hit the NS Moon, flying the Belize flag, and the Optima dry cargo vessel, flying the Palau flag, as well as a grain warehouse.

The officials said that the Optima had already been damaged in a previous strike on 7 October. Ukrainian sources have also reported Russian strikes on civilian vessels docked at the port of Odesa on 5-6 October and 9 October.

The ISW noted that Russian military bloggers have responded to these attacks with rhetoric supporting existing Kremlin narratives. These bloggers have explicitly called for further Russian strikes against Ukrainian grain infrastructure, civilian vessels at Ukrainian ports, and other targets that would degrade Ukraine’s economic potential.

ISW recently assessed that such Russian attacks on civilian vessels and other grain corridor infrastructure are “almost certainly intended to undermine Western confidence in Ukraine’s ability to enforce and defend the corridor, influence ongoing Western discussions about long-term support for Ukraine, and impede Ukraine’s ability to survive economically during the war.”

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