ISW: Russia intensifies efforts in Kursk to oust Ukrainian forces before winter

The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Moscow fears the onset of poor weather will lead to entrenched positional warfare, giving Ukraine time to fortify its positions. By committing significant resources to Kursk Oblast, Moscow risks exhausting operational reserves crucial for its ongoing offensive in Donetsk Oblast.

Oct 12, 2024 - 12:00

ISW: Russia intensifies efforts in Kursk to oust Ukrainian forces before winter

Ukrainian military equipment

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia is intensifying counterattacks in Kursk Oblast, likely aiming to expel Ukrainian forces before poor weather conditions hamper battlefield maneuver in late 2024 and early 2025.

Ukraine’s Kursk operation, launched on 6 August 2024, aimed to destabilize Russian defenses by forcing them to divert resources away from other critical fronts, such as Donetsk Oblast. The operation sought to stretch Russian forces thin and disrupt their advances in eastern Ukraine. However, despite initial success in occupying parts of Kursk, Russia has continued to push forward in Donetsk Oblast, particularly around the strategic city of Pokrovsk.

Russian military command may be concerned that unfavorable weather will lead to positional fighting, giving Ukrainian forces more time to fortify their positions in the region, according to ISW.

Russian forces perceive a closing window of opportunity to eliminate the Ukrainian incursion with current manpower and resources.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russia has redeployed approximately 50,000 personnel to Kursk Oblast since the incursion began.

ISW assesses that these redeployments have likely weakened Russian operational groups in other areas, including Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv oblasts. The Russian military command is reportedly aiming to quickly push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast to free up combat power for priority offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and alleviate theater-wide operational pressures.

Many of the redeployed units are VDV elements (Airborne Forces), which Russia typically uses to rapidly reinforce priority operations. Instead of reinforcing operations in Donetsk Oblast, these units have been sent to Kursk, potentially impacting Russia’s offensive capabilities elsewhere.

The Russian military has been relying on operational reserves established before its Summer 2024 offensive to maintain its tempo in Donetsk Oblast. ISW predicts that the exhaustion of these reserves will likely lead to the culmination of Russia’s Summer 2024 offensive in the coming months.

The Russian military command hopes that by swiftly eliminating the Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast, it can redeploy forces to Donetsk Oblast and prevent culmination before achieving its objectives of seizing Pokrovsk and eliminating the Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast.

However, ISW notes that Russian forces have not made rapid gains in Kursk Oblast since initiating counterattacks on 10 September.

Related:

You could close this page. Or you could join our community and help us produce more materials like this. We keep our reporting open and accessible to everyone because we believe in the power of free information. This is why our small, cost-effective team depends on the support of readers like you to bring deliver timely news, quality analysis, and on-the-ground reports about Russia's war against Ukraine and Ukraine's struggle to build a democratic society. A little bit goes a long way: for as little as the cost of one cup of coffee a month, you can help build bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world, plus become a co-creator and vote for topics we should cover next. Become a patron or see other ways to support. Become a Patron!