ISW: Russian military lacks operational capacity to maintain renewed summer offensive in Ukraine

A new analysis suggests that Russia may be unable to mount a large-scale summer offensive in Ukraine due to resource constraints.

Jul 31, 2024 - 07:27

ISW: Russian military lacks operational capacity to maintain renewed summer offensive in Ukraine

Ukrainian army counteroffensive 2023 solider

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 30 July Russia is unlikely to launch a new summer offensive operation due to material and manpower constraints. According to the think tank, the periodic and pulsating Russian mechanized assaults currently observed likely represent the extent of Russia’s offensive capacity.

According to the ISW, “Russian forces conducted periodic platoon—and company-sized mechanized assaults in the Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka directions in Donetsk Oblast throughout the summer and have more recently intensified assaults west and southwest of Donetsk City.”

The report suggests that Russian forces may be re-prioritizing the Donetsk City area, citing the redeployment of elements from the 90th Tank Division from Avdiivka to the southwest of Donetsk City. According to the ISW, this move could indicate that the Russian military command assesses the unlikelihood of rapid tactical gains near Avdiivka.

The ISW posits that the Russian military command may view these periodic, pulsating mechanized assaults as either sufficient to accomplish revised, more limited objectives for the summer of 2024 or as the extent of their current capabilities. This assessment contrasts with earlier reports from Western media, citing unspecified Ukrainian sources, which suggested plans for a large-scale Russian offensive to seize remaining territories in multiple oblasts during the summer of 2024.

The think tank also highlights the Kremlin’s tendency to oversell minor tactical gains for informational purposes, suggesting that limited advances in western Donetsk Oblast might be presented as major victories to the Russian public. Alternatively, the ISW proposes that the Russian military may push degraded forces to advance as far as possible before their combat capabilities culminate, regardless of losses incurred.

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