ISW: Russia’s diplomatic moves signal unwillingness for good-faith negotiations with Ukraine
Russian FM Lavrov's latest diplomatic engagements aim to shape international peace mediation efforts in Russia's war in Ukraine, while demonstrating Russia's unwillingness for good-faith negotiations, according to ISW.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Joint Ministerial Meeting of Strategic Dialogue in Saudi Arabia on 9 September.
During the visit, Lavrov held talks with GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad bin Salman. These meetings emphasized Russia’s interest in enhancing cooperation with Gulf states.
ISW says Lavrov claimed in July 2024 that Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are advocating within the GCC for the creation of a Eurasian security architecture. The institute previously assessed that “Russia’s proposal of a Eurasian security architecture is consistent with Russia’s long-term strategic goal of disbanding Western unity, disbanding NATO from within, and destroying the current world order.”
ISW notes:
“Kremlin officials are likely trying to shape international peace mediation efforts in the war in Ukraine while demonstrating Russia’s unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.”
On the sidelines of the GCC meeting, Lavrov also met with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) stated that Lavrov discussed the war in Ukraine with Vieira and Jaishankar but did not provide details.
ISW notes that Brazil and China have been promoting their “Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis” six-point peace plan since May 2024, with key principles favoring Russia. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently reaffirmed India’s support for peace in Ukraine, allegedly based on principles of international law.
However, on 9 September, Lavrov reiterated Kremlin narratives demonstrating Russia’s unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine. He claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula, which includes the withdrawal of Russian troops from all occupied territories, is an “ultimatum” and that Russia has never seriously considered the plan, despite it being purely based on principles of international law.
Related:
- ISW: Russia relies on India, Serbia, China to evade sanctions
- ISW: Hungarian PM Orbán “appears to be augmenting” Russian info ops
- German ambassador: Russia not ready for peace talks with Ukraine
- Orbán meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv while Hungarian FM calls Lavrov
- Russian FM Lavrov reiterates Russia’s maximalist goals in Ukraine
- WP: Qatar-mediated Ukraine-Russia negotiations postponed after Kursk incursion
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