ISW suggests Storm Shadow's target in Kursk Oblast could be Russian military HQ

Military analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Maryino in Russia's Kursk region, which was targeted by a missile strike on Wednesday, is located at a distance suitable for the establishment of an operational headquarters for Russian troops conducting an offensive along the line of contact.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukraine carried out a coordinated attack on Russian military assets in the rear during the night of 19–20 November, using drones and Western-supplied long-range weaponry. 

Geolocated footage released on 20 November shows the aftermath of what appears to be a Storm Shadow strike near Maryino, Kursk Oblast.

Several Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces launched up to 12 Storm Shadow missiles at Kursk Oblast, with the wreckage impacting Maryino.

The geolocated footage indicates the target might have been the historic Baryatinsky Estate in Maryino, which, according to the Ukrainian defence-focused outlet Defense Express, may have housed a command post for Russian and North Korean forces stationed in Kursk Oblast.

While ISW cannot confirm this claim, Maryino's location – about 30 km from the Kursk Oblast salient – makes it an appropriate site for an operational headquarters supporting offensives in the area.

Background: The Guardian and Bloomberg reported on 20 November, citing unnamed sources, that Ukrainian troops had launched the first strikes on military targets in Russia using Storm Shadow missiles provided by the UK.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 20 November:

• Ukraine conducted a successful combined strike against military assets in the Russian rear on the night of 19-20 November using drones and Western-provided long-range weapons. The 19-20 November strike series indicates that Ukraine has already begun leveraging Western-provided long-range weapons systems to assemble more complex and effective strike packages.
• Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have been able to conduct optimised operational manoeuvres since Winter 2022–2023 due to legacy doctrinal and resource limitations, but both are learning, innovating, and adapting their respective tactics on the battlefield, emphasising the dynamic nature of the current war.
• The US and Germany announced additional military assistance for Ukraine on 20 November.
• Ukrainian officials continue to launch investigations into Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and provide statistics on Ukrainians living under Russian captivity.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Russian military command's lack of proper treatment of Russian soldiers and continued reliance on "meat assaults" is likely contributing to mass desertions.

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