ISW: Ukraine ramps up weapons production, but Western aid still crucial

ISW assesses that substantial Western support remains crucial for Ukraine's defense and liberation of occupied territories in the coming years.

Oct 3, 2024 - 10:00

ISW: Ukraine ramps up weapons production, but Western aid still crucial

Production of Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer Bohdana

Ukraine is ramping up its domestic military production capabilities, particularly focusing on drones and missiles, in an effort to reduce dependence on Western military assistance. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Ukraine still requires considerable Western support for the next several years to effectively defend against Russian aggression and liberate strategically vital occupied areas.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on 1 October that Ukrainian companies can currently produce four million drones annually, and Ukraine has already contracted the domestic production of 1.5 million drones, presumably for 2024. This production target surpasses Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent claim that Russia plans to increase drone production tenfold to 1.4 million drones in 2024.

Zelenskyy also announced that Ukraine can produce 15 Bohdana self-propelled artillery systems every month and has recently conducted a successful flight test of an unspecified domestically produced ballistic missile. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed on 2 October that Ukraine will continue prioritizing domestic production of drones and long-range missiles, including ballistic missiles.

The Ukrainian government is backing these efforts with increased funding. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on 2 October that Ukraine has allocated $7 billion for the purchase of weapons and military equipment in the Ukrainian draft 2025 state budget, representing a 65 percent increase from the 2024 state budget. Shmyhal also noted that Ukraine increased domestic weapons production by a factor of three in 2023 and by a factor of two in the first eight months of 2024.

“ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian efforts to expand domestic military production will allow Ukraine to reduce its dependence on Western military assistance in the long-term, but that Ukraine still requires considerable Western assistance for the next several years in order to defend against Russian aggression and liberate strategically vital areas that Russian forces currently occupy,” the think tank concludes.

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