ISW: Ukrainian forces likely not control all territory in Kursk Oblast they declared
The Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast serves multiple strategic purposes, including preventing Russian troop movements and complicating Russian logistics, according to Ukrainian officials.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claim of controlling 74 localities in Russia’s Kursk Oblast may not align with the institute’s observations. According to ISW, geolocated footage and claims indicate Ukrainian forces are operating in or near approximately 41 settlements in the region as of 13 August 2024.
Ukraine started its military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region a week ago. On 12 August 2024, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukraine took 1,000 square kilometers of Russian land under control. On 13 August, Syrskyi told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukrainian forces now control 74 settlements in Russia’s Kursk region, according to the video shared by Zelenskyy on social media.
ISW notes that the discrepancy between official Ukrainian reporting and their observations “are not a refutation of Ukrainian official reporting but rather are a result of the inherent limitations of ISW’s open-source methodology and commitment to using only publicly available information.”
Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast and are increasing Ukraine’s “exchange fund,” likely referring to Russian prisoners of war. He also mentioned that Russian forces had conducted nearly 2,100 artillery strikes from Kursk Oblast against Sumy Oblast since 1 June 2024.
Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi clarified on 13 August that Ukraine is not interested in seizing territory in Kursk Oblast. Tykhyi explained, “Ukraine needs to protect itself from Russian strikes and push Russian forces away from Russian border areas that Russia uses to strike Ukraine.”
According to Tykhyi, the Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast serve multiple purposes. They aim to prevent the Russian military from transferring additional units to Donetsk Oblast and complicate Russian military logistics.
US officials have supported Ukraine’s right to self-defense. US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby and State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel stated on 12 and 13 August that Russia is conducting a war of aggression against Ukraine, suggesting that a quick solution to the Ukrainian incursion into Russia would be for Russian forces to leave Ukraine.
Read also:
- Russia began relocating troops from Ukraine to fend off the Kursk offensive
- Russia announces further evacuations in Kursk Oblast as Ukrainian forces advance
- Ukrainians advance in Kursk Oblast, ISW notes 800 km² advance claimed
