Kremlin anticipates prolonged Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast and preparing Russians for "new normal"
The Kremlin anticipates that the hostilities in Kursk Oblast, the target of a recent incursion by Ukrainian forces, could persist for several months, even by optimistic estimates, and is preparing Russians for the "new normal" as Ukrainian forces exert control over the occupied territory within the Russian Federation.
The Kremlin anticipates that the hostilities in Kursk Oblast, the target of a recent incursion by Ukrainian forces, could persist for several months, even by optimistic estimates, and is preparing Russians for the "new normal" as Ukrainian forces exert control over the occupied territory within the Russian Federation.
Source: Latvia-based Russian media outlet Meduza, citing unnamed sources close to the Kremlin and the government
Quote: "Immediately after the Ukrainian operation commenced in Kursk Oblast, Russian elites were shocked. In two weeks, 'the shock has worn off, and they have got used to the situation'."
Details: A source close to the Kremlin said, "It was initially unclear what forces were involved and how long it would last. Now we understand, which always makes it easier."
"They [Ukrainian forces] are far from the regional centres. However, the mere fact that they have entered the territory of the Russian Federation and taken control of villages is a new development, and a deeply unsettling one," the source said.
A poll revealed that anxiety among Russians rose by 6%, reaching 45%. The Kremlin views these figures as rather high and is hopeful for a swift decline.
To quickly ease public concern, the Kremlin is employing propaganda to prepare Russians for life in a "new reality" and a "new normal" – terms previously used by propagandists during the COVID-19 pandemic and at the outset of the war with Ukraine.
"This [the use of such phrases in propaganda] is necessary for people to consider what is happening not an aberration but a new normal, even if it is temporary. It has to be reassuring. It isn't easy to exist in a deviation from the norm. It is easier to exist in the norm, even if it is a new one," explains a media technologist working with the Putin administration's domestic political bloc, headed by Sergei Kiriyenko, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia.
The constituents of this "new reality", as conceived by the Kremlin, are as follows: the enemy has indeed broken through to Russian territory; it is facing inevitable defeat; yet retaking the territories will take time, so Russians need to wait.
At the same time, citizens are encouraged to "channel negativity and shock into positive action", such as participating in aid collection efforts for Kursk Oblast. The Putin administration has also "recommended" that regional authorities follow suit.
Another difference between the "new normal" and the previous one is the election of the governor of Kursk Oblast. "Cancelling the election would have increased panic: it means that the entire region is under threat since they cancelled the election of the governor, so perhaps the region has already been conceded? There are no threats to the vote," the source explained.
In general, all the officials interviewed by Meduza believe that the fighting in Kursk Oblast could continue for several months. A source close to the government clarifies that this estimate is "quite optimistic – if everything goes well".
Background: Prior to this, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reported that Ukrainian forces were in control of over 1,260 sq km of territory and 93 settlements in Russia's Kursk Oblast as of 20 August.
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