Kremlin downplays Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Kremlin has chosen to declare a counterterrorism operation in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region rather than impose martial law to downplay the scale of the incursion and prevent domestic panic or backlash.

Aug 12, 2024 - 07:44

Kremlin downplays Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast — ISW

ISW: Russia resists troop redeployments as Ukrainian Kursk incursion threatens Donetsk offensive

According to the ISW, Russian authorities are demonstrating reluctance to take more drastic measures in response to the situation. The Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported that the Russian Presidential Administration has recommended deputies and senators refrain from commenting on events in Kursk Oblast “until further notice” or to discuss it as briefly as possible, referring only to official statements.

Some Russian military bloggers have been calling for the Kremlin to officially declare war against Ukraine and have criticized the decision to declare a counterterrorism operation instead of martial law. The declaration of martial law would have allowed Russian authorities to take more severe measures, such as prohibiting rallies and demonstrations, imposing curfews.

The ISW notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently refrained from officially declaring a state of war and has shown unwillingness to fully transition Russian society to a war footing. Putin has also forgone a declaration of general mobilization, which is likely to prevent domestic discontent that could threaten the stability of his regime.

Analysts believe Putin likely appointed Alexander Bortnikov, head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), to lead the counterterrorism operation due to Bortnikov’s past effectiveness in managing crises that threatened Russian domestic stability and the Kremlin regime.

The ISW assesses that the complex command and control arrangement for the FSB-led counterterrorism operation under Bortnikov may reduce the effectiveness of Russia’s response to Ukraine’s operation.

The report also notes that Russian forces appear to be more adequately defending against Ukrainian assaults in the Kursk region following the arrival of additional conscripts and more combat-effective personnel from frontline areas in Ukraine.

This situation continues to develop as both Russian and Ukrainian forces adjust their strategies in the border region.

Other Takeaways from the report:

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be relying on a combination of Russian conscripts already operating in Kursk Oblast, elements of the Northern Grouping of Forces, and elements redeployed from lower-priority frontline areas in Ukraine to defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast, likely exacerbating the disorganization of Russia’s chosen response.
The Russian MoD appears to be relying on select, battle-hardened units to conduct offensive and defensive operations in its most critical sectors of the front.
Russian forces appear to be more adequately defending against Ukrainian assaults following the arrival of additional conscripts and more combat effective personnel from frontline areas in Ukraine.
Geolocated footage and Russian reporting from August 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces largely maintain previously reported positions in Kursk Oblast and have advanced slightly further than their previously confirmed positions.
Ukraine’s cross-border operation into Kursk Oblast threatens the Kremlin with a potential political crisis regarding causalities among Russian conscripts, whom the Kremlin has increasingly relied upon to defend the Russian state border with Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently struck a Russian ship and a gas platform in the western Black Sea.
Iran will reportedly deliver “hundreds” of ballistic missiles to Russia in the near future.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has begun to form the “Black Raven” strike drone volunteer unit and asked readers to donate to the 16-million-ruble (about $184,324) goal to supply the unit with drones and equipment.

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