Kremlin fears losing control of Syria amid rapid advance of opposition forces – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analysts said in a report on 30 November that Russia has stepped up diplomatic efforts to support the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad amid the active advance of opposition forces.

Source: ISW

Details: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on 29 November that the Syrian opposition forces' offensive represents an "encroachment on Syria's sovereignty" and affirmed Russia's support for Syrian authorities to restore "constitutional order."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a phone conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on 30 November to address the situation in Syria. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted that both officials voiced serious concerns regarding the "dangerous developments" in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. Lavrov and Fidan reportedly discussed the necessity of coordinating joint Russian-Turkish efforts to stabilise the situation, mainly through the Astana Process initiated by Russia, Türkiye and Iran in December 2016. 

ISW observes that the Astana Process is an alternative to the UN-led Geneva Process established under UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also reportedly called Lavrov on 30 November, during which they expressed "extreme concern" over the "dangerous escalation" in Syria.ISW notes that Russia has been facing difficulties in providing additional support to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad due to the high intensity of hostilities in Ukraine.

Russia redeployed S-300 systems from Syria to Russia in 2022, likely to bolster operations in Ukraine. ISW gathered unverified reports in March 2022 that Russia withdrew both Russian soldiers and Wagner Group militants from Syria, likely to reinforce its efforts in Ukraine.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 27 November:

• Kremlin officials responded to Syrian opposition forces' offensive into Syrian regime-held territory on 29-30 November and expressed interest in using the Astana Process to respond to the situation.
• Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un during his unannounced trip to Pyongyang on 30 November.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions north of Kharkiv, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticise poor Russian military command decisions and poor training and discipline among Russian personnel.

Background:

• On 30 November, the Syrian authorities announced a "temporary withdrawal of troops" from the city of Aleppo in the northwest of the country to prepare a counterattack against the rebels.
• Reuters sources reported that the Syrian military had been ordered to "safely withdraw" from the main opposition-held areas of Aleppo.
• The sources said that Russia has promised Damascus additional military assistance to counter the opposition forces and that new equipment will start arriving within the next 72 hours.

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