Lawmakers expect Johnson will greenlight clean spending bill into December

Lawmakers widely expect Speaker Mike Johnson will put a spending bill on the floor next week that has widespread Democratic support — funding the government into December without a GOP voting proposal.

Johnson himself isn’t indicating what his Plan B is after his proposed spending plan, which paired government funding through March with a Republican plan to require proof of citizenship in order to register to vote, failed on the House floor Wednesday night. Fourteen GOP members voted against it.

Five Republicans familiar with the internal discussions indicate that the House’s ultimate landing spot is inevitable anyway: They’ll have to vote next week on a “clean” bill to fund the government into December, forcing Johnson to lean on Democrats to avoid a shutdown that would kick in on Oct. 1. Many House Republicans — including those tasked with funding the government — increasingly expect that he’ll soon greenlight that plan. That prediction is also shared by House Democrats and multiple senators.

That means GOP leadership would be ignoring a demand from former President Donald Trump to shut down the government unless Republicans get their non-citizen voting bill, also known as the SAVE Act.

The Republicans familiar said their expectation is that the December funding bill will be on the House floor by mid-week — though they stressed that they hadn’t heard that from Johnson directly. Still, there is a growing consensus that Johnson is headed that way, with some predicting that the speaker wanted to put distance between Wednesday’s floor vote failure and announcing the new plan.

One of those Republicans, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, predicted that the House would vote on a short-term government funding measure into December by the middle of next week, adding: “I can’t see a scenario where shutting the government down makes any sense whatsoever — functionally or politically.”

Appropriators in both chambers have floated Dec. 13 as a possible end date for the bipartisan funding patch, which would set up yet another pre-holiday standoff over government funding, although no final decisions have been made.

There are already signs that bipartisan talks are underway, setting up the type of short-term funding deal that would avoid a government shutdown.

House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said Thursday afternoon that he expects bipartisan negotiations throughout the weekend.

Maine Sen. Susan Collins, the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said that she had a call with Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young on Thursday afternoon. She added that she expects bipartisan, bicameral talks to begin in earnest after Johnson’s setback on Wednesday.

“At least we’re talking now,” she said.

In case those talks go sideways and Johnson fails to move first, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer moved to tee up procedural votes as soon as Monday on a vehicle that could become a bipartisan stopgap spending bill. That gives Schumer the option of starting a funding bill in the upper chamber, rather than waiting for the House to send over legislation.

“Both sides are going to spend the next few days trying to figure out the best path remaining for keeping the government open,” Schumer said on the floor. “By filing today, I’m giving the Senate maximum flexibility for preventing a shutdown.”

While there’s broad agreement about a December end date for a forthcoming funding patch, both sides will have to sort through any potential add-ons. Those could include billions in disaster aid requested by the White House and possible money or spending flexibility for the Secret Service following two assassination attempts against Trump.

Senate Republicans are aware of Johnson’s predicament, given dozens of his own members are likely to vote against the final stopgap spending bill. They’ve been loath to move too quickly or look like they are jamming him — a move that would vex some House Republicans.

But GOP senators have also increasingly hinted they hope he can pass a Plan B.

South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the No. 2 Senate Republican, told reporters before the failed House vote that if Johnson’s original plan fell short, he expected they would move to another plan.

Asked what that could be, he added: “They move a shorter-term without the SAVE Act on it, I assume. … We’ll see.”

Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have repeatedly stated that a government shutdown would be a bad thing for the party just weeks before voters cast their ballots in November. But efforts to protect his more vulnerable members may put him in the crosshairs with his more conservative wing, which has raised questions about his political future.

Some conservatives are still pushing for Johnson to go instead to a six-month funding bill without the GOP voting proposal attached — but that, as other Republicans acknowledge, likely won’t earn the necessary Democratic backing to pass.

Instead, Democrats have signaled they would support a stopgap funding bill into December and would likely help provide many of the votes to pass the legislation. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Thursday he hadn’t spoken to Johnson that day or after Wednesday’s failed vote, though staffers were communicating with each other.

“The next few days will be determinative as to whether we can find the common ground necessary to fund the government, avoid a shutdown and meet the needs of the American people. This should not be complicated,” he said.