Major health organization makes startling heart disease prediction: ‘Near-perfect storm’

Heart disease has been the world’s No. 1 killer for over a century, and experts predict that it will become even more prevalent in the coming decades.

A report this month from the American Heart Association (AHA) predicts that at least six in 10 U.S. adults could experience cardiovascular disease within the next 30 years.

The rate of hypertension (high blood pressure) — which is one of the key risk factors for heart disease — is expected to increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050.

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Diabetes, another major risk factor, is also expected to rise (16.3% to 26.8%), along with obesity (43.1% to 60.6%), according to the study, which was published in the AHA journal Circulation.

As a result, total cardiovascular disease is predicted to rise from 11.3% to 15.0% between 2020 and 2050.

"The landscape of cardiovascular disease in the U.S. is seeing the arrival of a near-perfect storm," Dr. Dhruv S. Kazi, vice chair of the advisory writing group and a Boston cardiologist, said in a press release.

"The last decade has seen a surge of cardiovascular risk factors, such as uncontrolled high blood pressure, diabetes and obesity, each of which raises the risks of developing heart disease and stroke."

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Lead study author Karen E. Joynt Maddox, MD, associate professor at Washington University School of Medicine, said the magnitude of the increase was surprising.

"As a country, through lots of hard work from clinicians, patients and organizations like the American Heart Association, we have reduced mortality from heart disease by more than 50% in recent years, but we haven’t made the same strides in preventing disease," Maddox told Fox News Digital.

"We have neglected prevention, chronic disease management and public health."

On a positive note, the researchers determined that hypercholesterolemia (high levels of LDL, or "bad cholesterol"), will decline (45.8% to 24.0%).

They also predicted that diet, exercise and smoking habits will improve, although sleep quality is expected to worsen.

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The researchers analyzed data from the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

"We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics," they wrote.

"[The] most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black or Hispanic."

The study looked for trends in cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life’s Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. 

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Life’s Essential 8 consists of the following eight lifestyle behaviors for optimal heart health, according to the AHA:

Overall, the report predicts that clinical cardiovascular disease (affecting the heart or blood vessels) will affect 45 million adults by 2050, and clinical cardiovascular disease (including hypertension) will affect more than 184 million adults.

"The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years," the researchers stated.

Renato Apolito, M.D., the medical director of the Cardiac Catheterization Laboratory at Hackensack Meridian Jersey Shore University Medical Center, was not involved in the AHA study but shared his insights on the findings.

One of the key factors is the projected increase in obesity in the coming decades, Apolito said in an interview with Fox News Digital. 

"Obesity is very commonly associated as a driver of hypertension, diabetes, sleep apnea and hypertriglyceridemia," he said. 

Some of the greater causes of obesity are lack of exercise and a heavy reliance on processed and fast food, he noted.

"I suspect that as our standard of living goes up, our reliance on processed and pre-prepared food — in addition to lack of exercise and lack of sleep from our hectic work lives — will drive up obesity as the common denominator leading to all the other risk factors mentioned," Apolito predicted.

"All of those factors put together would lead to an increase in coronary artery disease, heart failure and stroke."

"We hope that this report helps spur change that is critically needed to improve the health of the population," Maddox told Fox News Digital.

The researchers recommend that people learn more about Life’s Essential Eight to optimize their cardiovascular health. 

"People can get involved in their communities to advocate for broader change that can help keep people healthy, like nutritious lunches and physical activity in schools, healthier options at restaurants, and better awareness of cardiovascular health," Maddox said. 

Clinicians can also talk to their patients about how to control risk factors, she suggested, and policymakers can work to pass legislation that enables better access to healthy foods, places to exercise, and affordable, high-quality health care.

Apolito agreed that change is needed.

"We are all under a lot of pressure and stress to work more to make ends meet," he said. 

"This typically leads to the bad lifestyle habits mentioned above."

The doctor recommends starting small, setting aside just 10 to 20 minutes per day to do some form of exercise and to make conscious decisions to avoid processed and fast foods.

"You would maintain a healthier weight, which would mitigate your risk of hypertension, diabetes, sleep apnea, dyslipidemia and, ultimately, cardiovascular disease," he said.

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Apolito also pointed out that the study is speculative, using predictive models on data from the past and present to predict the future — "which is never easy to do."

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"Hopefully, with increased public education, we can turn the tide and improve overall health in the coming decades by making healthy choices in lifestyle," he added.