‘March or April’: How Zelenskyy gave Johnson a deadline for military aid

Mike Johnson had been speaker for less than two months when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to him with a stark message: Time is running out.

As the two men huddled in the speaker’s office in December, a Ukrainian Ostroh Bible perched near them, Zelenskyy made it clear just how much longer his country could hold out against a renewed onslaught of Russian missiles and drones.

“March or April,” the president said, according to two people familiar with the discussion.

The December meeting and the bleak prognosis contributed greatly to Johnson’s decision to go against his conservative colleagues and come to the aid of Ukraine with a $60 billion aid package, according to three people familiar with the speaker’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Most importantly, it provided Johnson with a deadline — one the speaker took on as his own for the Ukraine aid package.

Johnson hit that deadline with just a little over a week to spare. On Saturday, the House passed the four separate measures — for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific and other national security matters — and President Joe Biden signed them into law Wednesday. Now $1 billion in military aid is headed to Ukraine, including long-range missiles that can help Kyiv strike beyond Russian positions.

There is no single reason why Johnson, who had previously insisted that support for Ukraine be tied to conservative border policies, got to yes this time. But the meeting with Zelenskyy gave Johnson more urgency to decide if staking his speakership to send more weapons to Ukraine was worth it, the three people said.

It kicked off four months of personal and professional agonizing over whether to defy Republicans seeking to oust him and secure military assistance for American allies. And it provided a target to the staffers in Johnson’s office tasked with crafting the House package: Get something workable ready by the deadline — just in case.

This account is based on interviews with eight Republican and Democratic congressional aides, lobbyists and officials familiar with Western intelligence, all granted anonymity to detail Johnson’s inner thinking and conversations among staffers inside his office.

When Johnson assumed the speaker’s gavel in October, he was set on making more military aid for Ukraine conditional — pairing it with other items like stronger border security provisions that were highly unlikely to get through the Democratic Senate. Over time that list grew to include turning some assistance into loans and using seized Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine.

But after the Ukrainian leader mentioned his troops would be nearly out of weapons by the spring, a person in House leadership familiar with Johnson’s thinking said the speaker decided action had to be taken before then. “They needed the ammunition and they needed the hardware so they could actually keep fighting,” said the person, also granted anonymity to speak candidly.

The task to prepare legislation and a pathway forward fell to Josh Hodges, Johnson’s national security adviser. Hodges, who studied at the Naval War College and wrote a profile of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership style, was one of the office’s most instrumental advocates for sending aid to Ukraine.

“Josh is the one who did the majority of the heavy lifting during this period,” a person familiar with Hodges’ role said. “He’s the one who slowly pieced it all together with the DOD, NSC, committee chairs and other members.” He had also for months been working to ensure Johnson had the space necessary to get concessions and make an informed decision.

Hodges also exerted direct influence on Johnson. The speaker would hear advice from others in his office that he should not move forward with the assistance, or only back aid for Israel. But Hodges, among other voices, argued that the U.S. had an opportunity to stand up to a growing axis between Russia, China and Iran in a way that was both immediate and cost-effective.

Not providing aid now, per a person familiar with Hodges’ stance, would weaken America’s standing in the world and empower its adversaries at a time when they were increasingly hostile. That choice would also keep billions of dollars from building more military capabilities for the U.S. as older weapons made their way into Ukraine.

Hodges didn’t respond to a request for comment. But a person close to him said that he maintains he was part of a broader team effort.

Johnson was hearing similar arguments from other sources. Many Republican lawmakers, including Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the House Foreign Affairs chair, kept in close touch with Johnson about the need to push the foreign aid bill through.

Pro-Kyiv lobbyists also visited Johnson often, including like-minded evangelical Christians from Ukraine. The advocacy group Razom for Ukraine put up billboards in Johnson’s Louisiana district with his favorite Bible verse, Esther 4:14, which concludes, “who knows but that you have come to your royal position for such a time as this?”

Over the last two weeks, intelligence officials and analysts had briefed lawmakers on Capitol Hill, including Johnson, about the situation on the ground in Ukraine.

Those officials said they increasingly believed Putin’s plans to mobilize new military units — including a new cadre of paramilitary fighters, coupled with additional ammunition from Beijing and dwindling Western support for Kyiv, would likely land him a win in Ukraine — and sooner than expected — if new U.S. assistance did not go through.

Putin would not get the outcome he wanted: total takeover of Ukraine. But he could find himself in a situation by the end of 2024 where he’d be able to negotiate favorable terms with Zelenskyy, the officials and analysts said. CIA Director Bill Burns publicly repeated that assessment in mid-April.

At the same time, Iran’s launch of 300 missiles and drones at Israel earlier this month spurred Johnson to treat aid to Israel with more urgency, per the same three people familiar with Johnson’s thinking. The day after the attack, the speaker called House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, his Democratic counterpart, and said he was ready to move forward on all the foreign aid bills.

Conservative colleagues assailed Johnson on the Tuesday that the House returned to session, demanding he only advance aid for Israel –– or not support the supplemental at all. Some said that putting the Ukraine measure on the floor would lead to his removal as speaker. Momentum, they said, had gathered behind Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) proposal to oust him.

Johnson turned to prayer, McCaul later told reporters: “He was torn between trying to save his job and do the right thing."

Johnson gathered his aides once more later that night. They revisited every argument, pro and con, and hashed out every scenario. Amid the back and forth, Hodges made an impassioned plea to back the foreign aid plan.

Johnson then told his staff he needed the night to think it over. By the time the speaker arrived back in his Capitol office Wednesday morning, he had made up his mind once and for all: “I’m going to do the right thing. I’m going to do what I know is right. We’re going to move forward.”

Erin Banco contributed to this report.