Margin of error race between Harris-Trump in new poll conducted after Biden dropped
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in an extremely close election contest, according to a new national poll conducted entirely after President Biden dropped out
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in an extremely close contest, according to a new national poll conducted entirely after President Biden announced he was suspending his campaign and endorsing his vice president.
Trump, who was formally nominated last week at the Republican National Convention as the GOP's 2024 presidential nominee, stands at 46% support among registered voters in an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll released on Tuesday.
Harris, who on Monday night announced that she'd locked up her party's nomination by landing commitments of backing from a majority of the nearly 4,000 delegates to next month's Democratic National Convention, stood at 45% support.
Trump’s one point edge was well within the survey’s sampling error. Nine percent of those questioned were undecided.
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Independents surveyed backed Trump 46%-32% over Harris, with one in five undecided.
In a multi-candidate field, the poll indicated Harris and Trump deadlocked at 42% support, with Democrat turned independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 7% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West each at 1%.
"Looking at the toplines after all that’s transpired this month, even though the names have changed, the contest for president all looks very familiar," Marist Institute for Public Opinion director Lee M. Miringoff highlighted. "But drilling down into the numbers tells a different story as more voters are undecided and others may be rethinking their choice."
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The poll was conducted on Monday, the day after Biden's blockbuster announcement that he was ending his 2024 re-election rematch with Trump.
Another national poll also conducted entirely after Biden's announcement - by Reuters/Ipsos on Monday and Tuesday - indicated Harris with a 44%-42% edge. The margin was within the survey's sampling error.
The president's immediate backing of Harris on Sunday ignited a surge of endorsements by Democratic governors, senators, House members and other party leaders in supporting Harris to succeed Biden as the party's 2024 standard-bearer.
Biden suspended his campaign amid mounting pressure from within the Democratic Party for him to drop out after a disastrous performance in last month's first presidential debate with Trump.
The 81-year-old president's uneven delivery and awkward answers during the first 20 minutes of the debate in front of a national audience quickly prompted questions about his mental and physical ability to serve another four years in the White House.
According to the poll, 87% of Americans thought Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race was the right thing to do, with only 12% believing it was the wrong thing to do.
Just over 4 in 10 questioned, including 65% of Democrats, said Biden’s decision increases the Democrats’ chances of winning in November. Just under a quarter said his decision decreases the Democrats' odds, and 34% said it makes no difference.
Top Republicans have been calling for Biden to resign the presidency in the wake of his decision. But 68% of those polled, including 47% of Republicans, said the president should finish his term in office. Just over 3 in 10 said he should resign now.
Both Harris and Trump are underwater when it comes to their favorable ratings, with Harris at 40%-44% favorable/unfavorable and Trump at 43%-49%.
Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Trump's running mate, stood at 28% favorable and 31% unfavorable, with just over 4 in 10 unfamiliar with the senator or unsure how to rate him.
When it comes to a running mate for Harris, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg top the list among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, with each at 21%.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro followed at 17%, with Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona at 13%, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper at 7% and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore each at 6%.
The survey had an overall sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
