Michigan may soon show just how badly Biden's cease-fire stance is hurting him

DETROIT — Joe Biden and his campaign know they're paying a political price with some voters by not calling for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza.

But inside the critical battleground state of Michigan, some Democrats fear the president's team doesn't appreciate the depths of discontent from Arab American and young voters over Biden’s response to the Israel-Hamas war. And they worry that even a widely expected protest vote in next week’s primary won’t give them the wakeup call that’s needed.

“I’m still surprised that they’re not taking this more seriously,” said state Sen. Darrin Camilleri, who declined to say how he’ll vote in Tuesday’s primary but supports a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.

“I feel like this is 2016 all over again,” Camilleri continued, referencing the former President Donald Trump's victory in the state. “It feels like our national party is not listening to our issues on the ground. If the president doesn’t change course, I would not be surprised if Biden loses the state [in November].”

A Democratic strategist in the state, who backs Biden and was granted anonymity to speak candidly, echoed those fears. Democrats, the strategist said, “are in trouble” because “every day, as violence in Gaza continues, getting those voters back becomes more of a challenge for Biden.”

Next week's primary in Michigan is likely to provide the most telling X-ray to date of just how fractured the Democratic Party is over Israel and Biden's presidency writ-large. Michigan, which was elevated to the early nominating window by Biden last year, represents a cross-section of base Democratic voters, from union households to a large Black voting bloc.

But poll after poll show clear warning signs for Biden with his base. And those most animated by the Israel-Hamas conflict are organizing a campaign to register discontent over the policy by asking voters to vote "uncommitted" in the primary next week.

“If they're not going to be moved because of the humanity of the Palestinian people, then perhaps they’ll view things differently when there’s a political calculus they have to make,” said state Rep. Abraham Aiyash, who is backing the protest vote. “Michigan is a state that swung from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, and not by significant numbers, so we have to recognize that there are still a lot of voters who feel frustrated.”

In recent weeks, Biden has looked to make inroads among the protestors. He hascriticized the Israeli government publicly, calling its response in Gaza as “over the top” and warned against a ground incursion into Gaza's southeastern most city, Rafah. He imposed sanctions on Israeli settlers, aimed at punishing those who have attacked Palestinians in the occupied parts of the West Bank. And Biden administration officials met with Arab American leaders in Dearborn, Michigan, earlier this month, who are pushing for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza.

“It was good they sent the team to Dearborn, but it was late in coming. It should’ve happened two months ago,” said an elected Michigan Democratic official who supports Biden in the primary and was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. “I think they’re now beginning to take it seriously.”

Privately, Biden advisers argue that there's little they can do — at least in the week before the primary vote — to assuage anger over the war. Instead, their focus is on rebuilding relationships ahead of November and sharpening the contrast with Trump. They believe the stakes of the general election will win out over the current frustrations over what’s happened in Gaza.

“If it was a relatively normal Republican candidate, then sitting out might be an option, but when you’re voting against a dictator, potential new [Vladimir] Putin, when that’s our other choice, it’s hard to think people will sit that out,” said Michigan state Sen. Rosemary Bayer. “It’s pretty dire.”

But simply presenting a choice between Biden and Trump may not be enough, progressive leaders warned.

“What will backfire with younger voters, with Muslim and Arab American voters and voters of color is rhetoric that engages in words, but doesn’t make fundamental changes in the direction of our foreign policy,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who has regularly served as a surrogate for Biden on the campaign trail. Khanna, who has called for a permanent cease-fire, is scheduled to meet with Arab American leaders and groups in Michigan later this week.

In Michigan, losing a segment of progressive-minded voters could mean that the Biden campaign risks the state and, in turn, the election. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by about 150,000 votes. There are 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim in the state, according to Emgage, a Muslim-American advocacy group. In 2022, young voters in Michigan turned out at the highest rates in the country, helping Democrats win full control of state government and reelecting Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

“I’m trying to scream from the rooftops,” said former Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, who is backing the “uncommitted” effort. “You’re not going to win unless you change course.”

The “Listen to Michigan” campaign, which is leading the effort to urge Democrats to vote “uncommitted,” has focused its organizing efforts on phone and text-banking over the last month. It has also made a six-figure digital ad buy to raise awareness.

At a community event space in Detroit on Tuesday night, more than a dozen “Listen to Michigan” volunteers dialed Democratic voters, asking if they wanted to “send a message to President Biden” about backing a cease-fire in Gaza. So far, the group has made nearly 50,000 phone calls.

The effort received another boost over the weekend, when Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian American serving in Congress, cut a video to urge Democrats to vote against Biden in the primary. Layla Elabed, who is Tlaib’s sister and is managing the effort, said the campaign wants to see "20,000 or more votes” on Tuesday to put “pressure on the Biden administration.”

That political pressure was on display in Ann Arbor Tuesday afternoon, when about 100 people gathered for a pro-Palestinian protest on the University of Michigan’s campus, many waving Palestinian flags and wearing keffiyeh scarves, a symbol of solidarity for Palestinians. Other protesters carried signs that read: “Jews say cease-fire now.”

“So long as you abandon the Palestinian people, we will be abandoning you in November,” said Salma Hamamy into a megaphone, greeted by cheers from the protesters. Hamamy, a 22-year-old University of Michigan student activist who backed Biden in 2020, said in an interview that in a Biden-Trump rematch this fall, she planned to either write in “cease-fire now” or withhold her vote altogether.

Hassan Awada, a 36-year-old University of Michigan alumnus who attended the rally, also wanted to “send a message to the Biden administration and to the Democrats that we’re not just a cheap voting bloc.”

Awada voted for Biden in 2020 but said he plans to sit out the 2024 election or vote third-party. If “Trump gets into the White House,” he said, “let it be.”

“We’ll endure, just like we endured him for four years,” Awada said.