Military bases loss in Syria will be a blow to Russia's geopolitical ambitions in Africa – ISW

The loss of military bases in Syria could seriously undermine the Kremlin's ability to conduct operations in Africa. It would weaken Russia's position in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa and call into question its influence over African authoritarian regimes.

Source: ISW (Institute for the Study of War)

Details: The Russian naval base in Tartus provided logistical support for the Kremlin's operations on the African continent. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War argue that its loss will disrupt personnel rotation, resupply, and Russia's ability to project military power in the region. This will especially affect operations in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia seeks to maintain its influence.

The Kremlin may try to compensate for its losses by increasing its presence in Libya or Sudan, but the lack of formal agreements with these countries and weak infrastructure complicate such plans.

Russia has used Syria as a bridgehead to maintain its presence in Africa. The loss of this strong point would have a devastating effect on its operations in Libya and the Sahel region.

Analysts say that the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad will pose an additional challenge to Russia's strategy.

The collapse of the Assad regime and Russia's inability to preserve it will cause significant damage to Russia's global image as a reliable ally, as well as call into question its influence on African authoritarian regimes that Russia seeks to support and its broader geopolitical goal of positioning itself as a global great power.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 8 December:

• The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria.
• The Kremlin reportedly secured an agreement on 8 December with unspecified Syrian opposition leaders to ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria, but the contours of this arrangement and its longevity remain unclear given the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation on the ground in Syria.
• ISW has collected strong indicators that Russia has been setting conditions to evacuate its military assets from Syria and that Russian military basing is not secure. Even if Russia maintains some or all of its bases in Syria, it is a major geopolitical loss for Moscow, as Russia’s continued basing in Syria will be at the mercy of Syrian opposition groups that the Kremlin previously used to call terrorists.
• The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa.
• Russian ultranationalist milbloggers – many of whom fought in or covered the Syrian war – are upset about the fall of the Assad regime, criticising it as yet another failure of Russian foreign policy to exert and maintain influence in areas of strategic importance.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on 7 December an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth US$988 million.
• Russian authorities detained alleged terrorists in the Republic of Dagestan on 7 December amid growing Russian milblogger claims that the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria will foster terrorism in Russia.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and the Pokrovsk and Vuhledar directions.
• One of Russia's largest microchip manufacturers has reportedly begun bankruptcy proceedings.

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