New poll reveals what voters think will happen in NY vs Trump

Nearly two-thirds of voters say former President Trump will be found guilty on some charges in his unprecedented criminal trial. 

Sixty-five percent of registered voters questioned in a Suffolk University/USA Today national poll of registered voters predict the former president will be convicted on some of the nearly three-dozen state felony charges he faces in his trial in New York City, which is the first in the nation's history for a former or current president.

Trump is charged with falsifying business records in relation to payments during the 2016 election that he made to Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about his alleged affair with the adult film actress. Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, a $130,000 payment in return for her silence about allegations of an affair with Trump in 2006.

The former president has repeatedly denied falsifying business records as well as the alleged sexual encounter with Daniels.

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The poll, released on Tuesday as Daniels took the witness stand for the first time in the blockbuster trial, indicates that half of those questioned believe Trump will be found guilty on some, but not all, counts. Fifteen percent predict the former president will be convicted on all counts, with 23% saying he'll be found not guilty on all charges.

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"The poll sets expectations going into the remainder of the trial and the verdict in terms of what voters see. This could be vastly different than what the jury sees," David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told Fox News.

Forty-four percent of those surveyed say they don't believe the trial has been fair to date, with 39% saying Trump is getting a fair trial. Sixteen percent were undecided.

"Fairness cut along party lines, with 76% of Democrats saying Trump is receiving a fair trial, while 80% of Republicans claimed that the trial has not been fair," Paleologos said. "Independents were split evenly on the question of fairness at 37% each, with 24% undecided."

Trump has continuously said in speaking to reporters, in interviews and in social media postings that the trial is not fair. And he's also repeatedly criticized prosecutors, the judge and witnesses in the case.

New York Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan recently found Trump in contempt nine times for violating a gag order in the case that prevents the former president from speaking out and taking aim at jurors and witnesses.

And on Monday Merchan ruled that Trump again violated his gag order and warned he would consider jailing the former president if the violations continued.

Trump and his defense attorneys have argued that the former president and presumptive Republican presidential nominee should not be bound by the gag order, saying it violates his First Amendment rights as well as the First Amendment rights of his supporters.

The trial has partially sidetracked Trump from the campaign trail as he faces off with President Biden in a 2024 election rematch.

The Suffolk University poll for USA Today was conducted April 30-May 3 with 1,000 registered voters nationwide questioned. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Fox News' Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

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