New York rematch could hold key to Democratic quest for House majority

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. — Democrats are going all-in on efforts to flip New York’s 4th Congressional District blue, funneling big names and money into the Long Island locale with hopes that a victory could help usher in a Democratic House majority next year.

The district, which sits on the South Shore of Long Island, holds the title of most Democratic-leaning district currently represented by a Republican.

The area broke for President Biden by 14.6 percentage points in 2020. But in 2022, Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito beat Democrat Laura Gillen for the district’s open House seat by 3.6 points, putting the liberal bastion in GOP hands for the first time in more than two decades.

This year's race — one of the most competitive this cycle — is a rematch between D’Esposito and Gillen, a take-two showdown that has drawn outsize attention, and fundraising, on the national stage.

In a sign of its importance, the top three House Democrats — Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), Katherine Clark (Mass.) and Pete Aguilar (Calif.) — have visited to campaign with Gillen this month, while House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) recently made a stop for D’Esposito.

Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the chamber next year, and Jeffries — speaking at a rally for Gillen in a packed Hempstead gymnasium — said the race is key to that effort. Early voting began Saturday in New York.

“No pressure on y'all,” Jeffries said. “But one of four seats that we need to win.”

Gillen is leading D’Esposito 53 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in a new Newsday/Siena College poll, with less than a month to go until Election Day. The margin of error is 4.5 percentage points.

Money and turnout could swing race

The race is one of 75 House rematches from 2022, according to Ballotpedia. And this time around, both candidates say the contest is different.

Gillen, a former Hempstead town supervisor, told The Hill during a women’s reproductive rights roundtable at her campaign office that additional resources, an earlier campaign launch and reverberations from the 2022 Supreme Court decision that struck down Roe v. Wade are fueling her optimism this cycle.

“I didn’t have the resources to communicate at the level I’d like to to talk to women about what the Dobbs decision really meant, even if you live in a blue state. And also to talk about other issues that people care about,” said Gillen, seated next to Clark.

“In this race, I worked really hard, I got in early, I got the runway I needed to raise the resources to communicate to all the folks in this district at the levels I’d like,” she added.

Gillen has also significantly outraised D’Esposito throughout the race: The Democrat has raked in nearly $5.69 million thus far, with D’Esposito trailing at $4.24 million, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.

The numbers mark a staggering increase from 2020, when Gillen brought in $1.83 million to D’Esposito’s $1.33 million.

D’Esposito’s fundraising deficit is even larger when assessing outside spending. House Majority PAC, the fund associated with Jeffries, has spent $5.43 million on the race, while the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is endorsed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), has funneled just $3.35 million into the rematch.

In an interview with The Hill at Hempstead Town Hall, D’Esposito — after an hour-plus town hall with roughly a dozen veterans — pointed to his cash disadvantage when asked if this year’s race feels different from his 2022 match-up, and attributed it to the national Democratic Party.

“It’s the fact that Hakeem Jeffries wants to be Speaker of the House, and he wants it to run through New York,” D’Esposito said. “And quite frankly, he should have chose someone else, because Nassau County is not gonna allow a liberal Laura Gillen to take this seat.”

While the candidates cited the money game when discussing the difference between now and 2022, Jeffries had a different theory in mind: voter turnout.

Republicans crushed Democrats in turnout in 2022. Of the 250,142 registered Democrats in the district, only 130,871 cast a ballot for Gillen — a 52.32 percent turnout. In contrast, of the 168,934 registered Republicans in the district, 140,622 came out in support of D’Esposito — an 83.24 percent turnout.

Jeffries — during his gaggle with reporters after Gillen’s rally — said he is focused on turning out the Democratic vote this cycle, which will lead the party to victory in November.

“There were 100,000 Democrats who stayed home during the midterm elections in 2022,” Jeffries said, standing below a scoreboard in the gymnasium with the home score set to 11, the guest score at 5, and 20:24 as the time — an homage to Election Day.

“We’re going to make sure that those Democrats come out to vote, and when they do, it’ll ensure that Laura Gillen is elected the next congressperson from the 4th Congressional district.”

Candidates moderate on immigration, abortion

The purple nature of the district — Cook Political Report rates the race a “toss-up” — has encouraged both candidates to moderate their stances on a number of hot-button issues.

Gillen has taken the issue of immigration head-on, sending a letter to President Biden recommending executive action pertaining to the border and cutting an ad that directly addresses the matter.

D’Esposito, meanwhile, has worked to present himself as a moderate on the issue of reproductive rights.

Gillen’s immigration strategy mimics that of Rep. Thomas Suozzi (D-N.Y.), who leaned into the issue during his successful campaign to replace ousted Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.).

“I’m Laura Gillen, and I’m here at the border — of Nassau County,” she says in the ad. “We’re 2,000 miles from Mexico, but we’re feeling the migrant crisis almost every day. So I want you to hear me loud and clear: You send me to Congress, I will work with anyone in any party to secure our southern border, lock up criminals pushing fentanyl and stop the migrant crisis.”

Gillen told The Hill the issue of immigration is “an issue that people in my district care about very much” before criticizing both parties for the “lack of political will” to tackle it.

Colleen Ryan, a D’Esposito supporter, mentioned immigration when asking a question at the incumbent’s town hall focused on veterans' issues. Afterward, she called the influx of migrants a “problem.”

“I support immigration,” Ryan told The Hill. “It is the problem with illegal immigration, and they are being transported around the country and they have a disregard for the law of the land. And that’s demoralizing. … I’m absolutely for Anthony D’Esposito stopping the lawbreaking.”

If immigration has been a leading issue for Republicans, women’s reproductive rights has been a top issue for Democrats, with the fall of Roe v. Wade in 2022 continuing to motivate liberal voters across the country.

During a women’s reproductive rights roundtable at her campaign office, Gillen and Clark sought to paint D’Esposito as extreme when it comes to the issue of abortion, arguing he would sign a nationwide ban on the procedure and knocking him for calling it a “state issue.”

D’Esposito, however, has strongly rejected that interpretation. He told The Hill that he would never sign a nationwide abortion ban, touted his part in keeping an appropriations bill off the House floor that would have restricted access to the abortion pill mifepristone, and named bills he has co-sponsored that protect in vitro fertilization.

“When it comes to abortion, I have been a champion of women’s rights,” he said.

Helene Spierman, a Gillen supporter who has lived in the district for 25 years, listed women’s reproductive rights as a top issue for her this cycle.

“That everybody has a voice and that people are created equal and that the government has got to trust that,” she said. “I could say that it’s abortion, I could say that it’s the Constitution, I could say that it’s not going back to the 17th century, the 18th century, when the Constitution was written.”

September surprise threatens to shake up race

While those issues — and others — have dominated the campaign, a September surprise is threatening to shake up the race.

The New York Times published a bombshell report last month alleging D’Esposito, shortly after being sworn into the House, hired his longtime fiancée’s daughter and a woman he was having an affair with.

D’Esposito has repeatedly denied engaging in any wrongdoing and claimed he has abided by ethical standards throughout his tenure in Congress. He told The Hill the story was “a political hit piece” and said he is “absolutely not” concerned about backlash from the report on Election Day.

That response, however, is not putting the story to bed.

The Times report was the subject of the first question at the N.Y.-4 debate earlier this month, putting D’Esposito on the defensive out of the gate. He reiterated his denial, before reading off a number of headlines from right-leaning outlets calling Gillen’s ethics into question.

Gillen, for her part, has leaned into the allegations against D’Esposito in the final stretch of the election. She referenced the report during her rally in Hempstead alongside Jeffries, and she tore into his alleged “abuse of power” during an interview with The Hill.

The Times report is likely to be a mainstay of Gillen’s final pitch to voters, in addition to her message on the economy, state and local taxes, immigration and women’s reproductive rights — an all-encompassing campaign trail blitz as Democrats look to reclaim the coveted seat after the crushing loss last cycle.

“A setback is nothing more than a setup for a comeback,” Jeffries said at his rally with Gillen. “We had a setback in 2022. Are we ready for a comeback?”