North Korea's foray into Ukraine riles US, raises global risks

This week’s revelations that North Korean troops could within days join Russia’s war in Ukraine have raised the prospect of the U.S. and its allies getting more involved in the conflict.

The Biden administration on Wednesday acknowledged that some 3,000 North Korean soldiers were training at Russian military bases. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow plans to deploy the North Koreans on the battlefield starting as soon as Sunday.

“This is a clear escalation by Russia,” Zelensky said Friday on social platform X. 

“North Korea's actual involvement in combat should not be met with indifference or uncertain commentary, but with tangible pressure on both Moscow and Pyongyang.”

Some lawmakers, including House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio), this week called for the U.S. to consider taking “direct military action” if North Korean forces enter the conflict. And South Korea said Thursday it might start directly arming Ukraine with offensive weapons for the first time.

While experts predicted a measured response from the U.S. to the provocation — likely more weapons surged to Kyiv to bolster its offensive and defensive positions — more North Korean troops and their outdated munitions in the fight raise the risk of the conflict spiraling out of control.

“We're not going to do anything escalatory that's going to inflame the situation ... [but] God forbid an inaccurate North Korean missile lands in Poland and kills somebody, or lands in Romania, that's where this could get really scary very very quickly,” said Harry Kazianis, the senior director of national security affairs at the Center for the National Interest think tank.

Such an incident would not only inflame tensions between NATO and Russia, but also on the Korean peninsula, he told The Hill.

The Russia-North Korea military alliance has intensified in recent months, with warnings earlier this year that the two countries might try to stage a provocative military action ahead of November’s election. 

The potential for North Korean troops to actually deploy alongside Russian forces is a more recent and rapid development. 

Zelensky warned last week that North Korea was sending upward of 10,000 soldiers to fight with Russia. Kyiv has since estimated that about 12,000 North Korean soldiers were in Russia, including 500 officers, three of whom are generals.

Ukraine’s military defense intelligence service said Thursday it had observed some North Korean troops in the combat zone between Kremlin and Ukrainian forces. And Zelensky earlier this week said Pyongyang had already sent tactical personnel and officers into Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.

Sydney Seiler, a former national intelligence officer on North Korea at the National Intelligence Council, predicted that Washington could push back by optimizing its intelligence to Ukraine to include what the U.S. knows about the location and capabilities of North Korean soldiers.

“Something that looks like we're supporting Ukraine, it looks like we're taking it seriously. It would be the symbolism,” said Seiler, now with the Center of Strategic and International Studies. “There are short-term ways of putting pressure on Putin, sending warnings.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un first met in September 2023 to negotiate the purchase of North Korean artillery shells, rockets and missiles in exchange for valuable Russian military technology.

By November, U.S. and South Korean officials estimated Pyongyang had sent a million artillery shells to Moscow as well as rockets and ballistic missiles. The transfers are a violation of numerous U.N. sanctions on both countries, but North Korea firmly denied the claims.

Putin and Kim in June signed a partnership and pledged to provide mutual aid and protection against foes.

The trade has been beneficial for both Russia and North Korea, as the Kremlin has been bolstered with munitions its factories have struggled to churn out, and Pyongyang has supposedly received needed technology to further its nuclear and space programs.

“They don't care who wins in Ukraine, but they see it as an opportunity to get billions of dollars in hard currency and revenue that they never would have got by probably selling off old stockpiles of Cold War artillery shells that are probably ancient and probably have a 50 or 60 percent failure rate,” Kazianis said.

But what’s good for Putin and Kim spells trouble for the rest of the globe.

For the West to push back in the short term, experts believe countries will increase shipments of weapons to Ukraine, including more ammunition in an attempt to even the playing field. 

Ukraine has also increased its calls for the U.S. to lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons it has provided, but the White House as of Wednesday still appeared reluctant to do so.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that it is still up in the air whether the North Korean soldiers would be deployed into combat, and it was too early to tell the kind of impact they would have on the battlefield.

“We don’t know what they’re going to do; we don’t know if they’re going to deploy into combat or not; we don’t know if they do at what strength,” he said, adding that the U.S. will monitor the situation closely and continue to surge security assistance to Kyiv.

Kazianis said for the U.S. to greenlight the long-range weapon “there has to be sort of a game-changer moment.” 

“Something has to happen that makes this conflict even worse for them to lift it,” he said. “I think it would have to be so maybe an attack, an accidental attack on NATO soil, something that really escalated the situation.”

The deployment also adds to worries that the conflict could spill over and affect tensions in Asia, where China has continued to threaten taking Taiwan by force and where tensions with South Korea and North Korea have been simmering over Pyongyang accusing its neighbor of flying drones into its capital and allegedly scattering propaganda leaflets.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol alluded to his country’s potential involvement in Ukraine on Thursday when he told reporters they would not “sit idle” in the face of North Korea’s “provocation that threatens global security beyond the Korean Peninsula and Europe."

South Korea has already aided Ukraine by providing arms to the United States and Ukrainian neighbors, including Poland, but Yoon has now floated potentially sending offensive weapons directly to Kyiv.  

“We have had a principle of not directly supplying lethal weapons” to fighters, he said after meeting with the visiting Polish president. “But we can be more flexible and review the policy depending on North Korea’s military activities.”

Kazianis said he believes the South Koreans are “very close” to making good on that plan, as they are very frustrated with the North Koreans’ behavior over the last few years. 

“The South Koreans are aggravating to begin with, and they’re already selling billions of dollars in arms to the Polish,” he said. “It would not be difficult for the South Koreans to start selling those arms to the Ukrainians.”