Oakland police refute claims it is distorting massive crime figure drop
Oakland police reported a 33% drop in crime this year, but critics say the figure is misleading and is much lower in reality. Officials are standing by their reporting.
The Oakland Police Department (OPD) has shot back against claims that it has been underreporting its crime data, which shows dramatic falls in crime this year compared to 2023.
A report by the San Francisco Chronicle and the Oakland Report claims that OPD is not comparing like with like when reporting its crime figures for Oakland, California, and thus its perceived dip in crime is misleading.
Data released by the OPD in May reported that violent crime rates were down in the first part of the year, with crime down 33% overall. Burglary had dropped 50%, while homicides had fallen by 17%, assaults were down 7% and rapes are down 21%.
The figures were touted by embattled progressive Mayor Sheng Thao, who faces a recall ballot in November due to public safety and economic vitality concerns, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Oakland has faced mounting issues such as housing costs, homelessness and crime in recent years. Last week, dozens of people ransacked a gas station mini-mart near the San Francisco Bay Oakland International Airport, leaving the store destroyed.
"Oakland is turning the corner and our focus on public safety is paying off," Thao wrote on X May 1. "After years of rising crime rates, Oakland is experiencing a significant and sustained decrease in overall crime."
However, the San Francisco Chronicle and Oakland Report on Substack suggested that the OPD was comparing incomplete 2024 crime tallies to complete 2023 crime tallies, since the 2024 figures take time to be finalized and have been historically underreported when comparing them in this manner.
"For example, the total burglaries reported by the OPD during week 17 of 2023 (April 17-23) were 3849," Timothy Gardner wrote in his Oakland Report investigation. "One year later, after all data had been completely tabulated, the final burglary count was 6026 for that same week. This means the initial crime report under-counted burglaries by 57% relative to the original tally or 3849 crimes."
Gardner’s analysis found that burglaries are the least accurate counts and are undercounted by between 20 and 50% in recent years.
The San Francisco Chronicle added that given currently available data, it is not possible to know just how much the 33% figure in the OPD’s overall reported crime drop was accurate.
"A Chronicle analysis of Oakland’s underestimates in previous years suggests that though overall crime was almost certainly down in Oakland through April, that reduction may fall to 20%, possibly less, when the data is fully updated," the San Francisco Chronicle reported.
The publication, citing police, reports that the OPD online reports need to be verified and imported into a records management system, causing a lag of up to six weeks. It also noted that lower priority crimes are generally not investigated right away and usually compiled from reports filed online by victims.
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In response, the OPD defended its crime reports in a statement provided to Fox News Digital, noting that there has been no change in how the OPD has reported its weekly crime data.
"Our Weekly Crime Reports are up-to-date and accurate for crimes involving immediate danger and loss of life, such as homicides, shootings, sexual assaults, and robberies," an OPD statement reads, in part. "Property crimes such as burglaries, auto theft, and larcenies are accurate at the time of reporting."
The OPD did admit that there can be waits in tabulating its weekly crime figures, but that this is commonplace among other police departments.
"There can be a delay in the overall number of reported property crimes based on our community’s use of the online reporting system. Each of these online crime reports must be reviewed and verified by a member of our staff before being included in crime statistics," the statement reads.
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"This practice is not unique to Oakland; it is consistent with other jurisdictions around the Bay Area, which also experience similar delays and have comparable disclaimers regarding lag time in their reporting methods."
Thao, whose home was raided by the FBI last month as part of a political corruption probe, did not respond to a Fox News Digital request for comment.
Lt. Barry Donelan, the head of Oakland’s burglary and general crimes detail, told the San Francisco Chronicle that the department is not trying to deliberately mislead the public and that its IT infrastructure is dated. A report management system issued to Oakland police in 2006 has yet to see an upgrade, he said.
"Do we know there are shortcomings in the numbers? Yes," Donelan told the San Francisco Chronicle. "Is there a desire among professional law enforcement to fix that? Oh, yes."
