Only 10% of Europeans believe in Ukraine's victory over Russia on battlefield – survey

Support for Ukraine among Europeans remains broad, but almost two years after the full-scale invasion, only 10% believe Ukraine can defeat Russia, according to a YouGov survey.

Source: The Guardian, with reference to a YouGov survey for the study Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine, reported by European Pravda  

Details: A January poll in 12 EU member states, including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, found that the halt of Ukraine's counteroffensive, growing fears of a shift in US policy and the prospect of a second term for Donald Trump are fuelling pessimism about the outcome of the war.

The survey found that only one in 10 Europeans in the 12 countries surveyed believed that Ukraine would win on the battlefield, while twice as many (20%) predicted a Russian victory. Even in the most optimistic EU member states – Poland, Sweden and Portugal – less than one in five (17%) believed in Kyiv's victory.

Across all countries, the survey found that the most common view, shared by an average of 37% of respondents, was that the war would end with a compromise solution – although some countries were more inclined to this outcome than others.

In Sweden (50%), Portugal (48%) and Poland (47%), respondents were more inclined to believe that Europe should help Ukraine fight back, while in Hungary (64%), Greece (59%), Italy (52%) and Austria (49%) they favoured putting pressure on Kyiv to accept peace negotiations. In France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, opinions were more evenly divided.

The survey showed that many Europeans increasingly believe that Russia's war against Ukraine directly affects them. 33% said it had a greater impact on their country – and on Europe (29%) – than the war in the Middle East (compared to 5% who said the opposite).

Background:

• A survey conducted before the Munich Security Conference showed a lower perception of Russia's war against Ukraine as a major threat to the world compared to last year's results.
• Another survey showed that the United Kingdom and the United States ranked first in the perception of Ukrainians as friendly countries, but Lithuania, the United Kingdom and Canada were the top three in the rating of definitely friendly countries.

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