Opinion | The Incredibly Shrinking GOP Presidential Race

You might not have noticed, but multiple Republican candidates are still running for president against Donald Trump.

In the epic 2016 primary race, Trump was shocking and new; the debates were unpredictable, must-watch events; and Ted Cruz made a genuine race of it.

In the underwhelming 2024 primary campaign, Trump has been shocking but is now very familiar; the debates have been a fizzle; and, so far, there has been no race to speak of. The nomination battle has been almost devoid of interest, and usually feels like a subplot in a television series about something else.

Now, all this is potentially subject to change. It may be that the softer elements of Trump’s support flake off as we get closer to actual voting, and that someone surges in Iowa or New Hampshire, states that tend to break late. But unless or until that happens, it’s been, “Wake Us When It’s Over,” the title of the book by journalists Jack Germond and Jules Witcover about the 1984 presidential campaign.

There might be interest in what a candidate says about another news event, but none of the candidates, besides Trump, are themselves news events. There are no direct confrontations with the frontrunner and the other contenders because Trump isn’t showing up on the debate stage.

Trump is such an overwhelming figure — with so many Republican voters still in his thrall — that everyone is drawn into his orbit. The rest of the field has largely been put in the same position as the senators and congressmen who were constantly asked in the hallways of Capitol Hill about the latest Trump flare-up during his presidency.

This has made Trump’s formidable lead self-reinforcing — he’s ahead so everything is about him, which helps keep him ahead.

At the outset of the campaign, it seemed perhaps Trump would destroy DeSantis in a battle of titans or DeSantis would topple the King of MAGA, who had played a big role in elevating the Florida governor. Instead, DeSantis has experienced a slow, steady fade to a distant second, devoid of drama, or, it must be said, major missteps.

Yes, he overemphasized cultural issues at the beginning of his campaign and has over-spent. But there’s been no scandal like Gary Hart on the “Monkey Business,” or a gaffe like Rick Perry’s inability to remember a cabinet department that he wanted to eliminate during a debate. He’s still broadly popular.

Overall, the major events in the race have been few and far in between. The ones that have moved the needle have involved Trump legal fireworks, with his first indictment by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg boosting him to a new level of support. Otherwise, there’s been very little that’s memorable.

The first presidential debate led to a mini-Nikki Haley surge, especially in New Hampshire, but more within the ranks of the rest of the bunched-up field rather than against Trump himself.

The second debate was such a chaotic muddle that Trump allies used the occasion to call for the rest of the debates to be called off as part of a push to essentially end the nomination battle early. (To paraphrase Trump’s famous call for a Muslim ban in 2015: “We’ve got to shut down this primary until we can figure out why nothing is going on.”)

Even the chief non-Trump firebrand has been armed with cherry bombs rather than grenades. Despite all his attention-generating media appearances and opportunistic provocations, Vivek Ramaswamy is still a single-digit afterthought.

There has been no defining ideological contention in the primary or any signature policy initiative. To his credit, former Vice President Mike Pence has been trying to get a debate going about traditional conservatism v. populism, but populism is so associated with Trump, who is so strong, there have been few takers.

The DeSantis elevator pitch is that he offers the same basic policy formula as Trump, except he’s more electable and more capable of following through, whereas the Haley elevator pitch is that she’s younger than Trump.

Usually, when there’s nothing new happening in a presidential race, the media generates some fresh storyline to try to switch things up. But, again, Trump’s lead has been so large and enduring that the race has been immune to media-driven resets of the narrative. Why bother?

If Trump is simply sweeping to the nomination from start to finish, that’s certainly an event of consequence, although not necessarily an interesting one.