Permission to strike deeper into Russia to reduce guided bomb attacks on Ukraine by 30-40%, says expert

Pavlo Narozhnyi, a military expert and founder of the “Reactive Mail” charitable organization, says that after receiving US approval to use ATACMS missiles against Russian territory, Russian forces will likely have to significantly reduce the deployment of guided aerial bombs due to the necessity of relocating their aircraft to more distant airfields, “Kyiv 24” reports.

Despite months of Ukrainian pleas amid Russian offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, Western nations had previously restricted the use of long-range missiles on Russian targets, fearing escalation. On 17 November, US officials announced President Joe Biden’s approval for Ukraine to utilize such weapons.

“The Russians lack sufficient aircraft and pilots. Currently, they can conduct 60-65 sorties daily, dropping 100-120 guided bombs. If their aircraft are relocated more than 300 kilometers away, the number of sorties will drop by 30-40%, as longer flights will wear out engines faster and fatigue pilots, increasing error probability,” Narozhnyi explained.

He noted that even if Ukraine refrains from striking Russian airfields, Russia will still have to withdraw aircraft beyond the missile range, limiting its operational capabilities. This strategy could weaken Russia without extensive long-range strikes.

Narozhnyi also highlighted that Russia might relocate Su-34 and Su-35 fighters, Su-25 attack aircraft, and helicopters equipped with anti-tank systems like Vikhr missiles, which pose a threat to Ukrainian tanks, but their capabilities will be reduced as their operational range is often below 300 kilometers.

Ukraine has reportedly used its new US authorization, targeting a military site in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast with American-provided missiles for the first time.

Ukraine hit strategic Russian ammo depot in overnight attack, likely using ATACMS (video)

The target was identified as the 67th GRAU Arsenal, a facility containing strategic supplies of munitions, according to Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council. GRAU stands for the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Related:

• CNN: Russia breaks Cold War deterrence doctrine with multiple warhead missile strike on Dnipro
• Moscow’s first ICBM attack: Russia hits Dnipro with intercontinental ballistic missile injuring two
• Pentagon: No signs Russia preparing nuclear weapons use against Ukraine
• ISW reports Kremlin threats over US approval of Ukrainian ATACMS strikes inside Russia