Politico: Kursk incursion catches Putin off guard, shifts tactical narrative

Ukraine's units have seized territory in Russia's Kursk Oblast, demonstrating offensive capabilities. While catching Putin unprepared, the incursion's limited aims and Russia's numerical advantage suggest it may not significantly alter the war's overall trajectory, Politico says.

Aug 16, 2024 - 07:31

politico kursk incursion catches putin off guard shifts tactical narrative ukrainian soldier posing near entrance sign lyubimovka oblast russia august 2024 military kursk-1

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast that started on 6 August marks the first invasion of Russia since World War II. Ukrainian units reportedly drawn from four brigades have been broadening their bridgehead for over a week, with Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi earlier claiming that 1,000 square kilometers of territory inside Russia had been seized.

Politico’s op-ed argues that Ukraine’s recent cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk Oblast has shifted the tactical narrative of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, but questions whether it will alter the strategic dynamics. The article suggests that while the incursion caught Russian President Vladimir Putin unprepared, its aims are likely limited to forcing troop redeployments and strengthening Ukraine’s future negotiating position.

The raid demonstrates Ukraine’s offensive capabilities and proficiency in combined arms warfare tactics, but without increased Western support and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles, it may be challenging for Ukraine to tip the war decisively in its favor, Politico says. Russia still maintains a numerical advantage, and a war of attrition continues to favor Russia.

The article concludes that while the Kursk incursion has undoubtedly boosted Ukrainian morale and may encourage some tiring allies, it’s unlikely to spark Putin’s downfall or significantly change the war’s course. Politico suggests that the operation’s impact on future peace negotiations remains to be seen, as both sides continue to face challenges in mobilization, morale, and international support.

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