Putin’s fear of societal backlash prevents new mobilization wave, ISW says

ISW reports Russia unlikely to mobilize in near term due to Putin's concerns about regime stability. Despite Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and military needs, Putin favors volunteer recruitment over mobilization, fearing societal backlash.

Sep 20, 2024 - 12:00

Putin’s fear of societal backlash prevents new mobilization wave, ISW says

putin's fear societal backlash prevents new mobilization wave isw says russian soldier looted items popasna luhansk oblast ukraine spring 2022

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia is unlikely to implement mobilization, primarily due to President Vladimir Putin’s personal concerns about regime stability.

According to ISW,

“Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the near to medium term due to Putin’s personal fear that mobilization is a direct threat to his regime’s stability.”

The think tank observed speculation about a potential mobilization wave prior to Putin’s inauguration and following the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, but noted that Putin has not authorized such action.

Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that sources close to the Russian government claimed the Kremlin considered mobilization immediately after Ukraine’s incursion. However, the Russian Cabinet of Ministers and Kremlin-affiliated businessmen reportedly opposed these considerations.

Throughout the incursion, Putin has consistently signaled his commitment to recruiting volunteers. ISW noted that Putin chose to form new irregular formations and expand volunteer recruitment efforts rather than use the incursion as an opportunity to prepare Russian society for mobilization.

The Institute highlighted that “Putin likely seeks to avoid societal backlash in response to a new mobilization wave at this time,” recalling the shock to Russian society caused by the partial mobilization declared in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing a source “briefed” on an exchange between Putin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials, reported that Putin dismissed calls for another mobilization wave several months prior to his presidential inauguration in May 2024. Instead, Putin stated his intention to recruit only voluntary contract servicemen.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, responding to WSJ, reiterated that Russia continues to rapidly recruit contract servicemen (kontraktniki) and volunteers, claiming these forces are sufficient for Russia’s operations in Ukraine.

WSJ: Russian Defense Ministry pressures Putin for a new wave of mobilization

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