Race between Trump, Biden so close it will come down to one variable, survey concludes

A new survey shows that the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and President Biden is thin, but Biden faces a deficit in terms of registered voters and the election will rest heavily on who mobilizes the most voters.

A new Marquette Law School national survey shows Trump with 51% of the vote compared to Biden at 48% among registered voters, but reflects that Biden has a 51% to 49% advantage with people who are "likely" to vote. 

"The difference in advantage shows how the outcome of the election may be determined by the success of respective efforts to mobilize voters over the coming 13 months," the survey states.

The poll, conducted from Sept. 18-25, shows that registered voters who are "very" or "somewhat" enthusiastic about the 2024 election favor Trump by a margin of 54% to 46%.

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The survey also polled voters on a matchup between Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and the latter topped the president 51% to 48% among registered voters.

With likely voters, Biden leads 51% to 48%.

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In terms of "reluctant" voters, Biden holds a lead of 51% to 47%.

The poll shows that 12% of voters will choose someone else besides Biden or Trump, and 4% won't vote.

"Registered voters view Trump as better able to handle the economy, immigration, inflation, creating jobs, and foreign relations, while Biden is seen as better at handling Medicare and Social Security, abortion policy, and climate change," the survey says.

"A significant share say there is no difference or that neither candidate would be good on each issue."

The survey was conducted among 1,007 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.