Reporter's Notebook: No proof of citizenship? No vote

No proof? No vote.

As in, proof of citizenship.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., convened a conference call Wednesday with House GOPers, just days before the House returns to session for the first time since late July. Johnson advocated that the House adopt an interim spending bill running into the first quarter of next year to avert a government shutdown on Oct. 1. But House Republicans will attach the so-called SAVE Act to the bill. That’s short for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act. It’s legislation the House adopted in July, requiring people to show proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections. 

All Republicans voted yea two months ago. Five Democrats voted yea.

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"If you're here illegally and interfere in our elections, you deserve a pair of handcuffs, not an ‘I voted’ sticker," said Rep. Keith Self, R-Texas, during the floor debate. 

The House Freedom Caucus pitched the interim spending bill/citizenship voting plan to the speaker. First of all, some conservatives believe that a number of persons in the U.S. could illegally vote. So, they want to protect against that. Secondly, there is concern that local jurisdictions like Oakland, Calif., now allow noncitizens to cast ballots for school board and city council. The Freedom Caucus frets there aren’t proper guardrails to prevent those people from voting for federal offices. Third, FOX is told that Republicans believe the SAVE Act is a good campaign issue. It puts Democrats on the spot as GOPers curate a narrative about consequences of the border crisis. And fourth, former President Trump is pushing Republicans to take this approach.

"President Trump wants to see us pick a fight," said Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas. "All Republicans support it. It's only Democrats standing in the way of a commonsense measure to ensure all American citizens vote in American elections." 

Also, this move helps Johnson, who earned criticism from the right for not handling spending bills the way they wanted in the spring. So, the voting maneuver would bolster Johnson in efforts to keep opponents at bay. The approach creates unity for Republicans and strengthens the hand of the speaker while simultaneously applying pressure on Democrats.

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Conservatives usually balk at stopgap spending bills, especially long-term ones, but perhaps not one that extends into 2025. Conservatives are banking on the idea that the GOP will hold the House, flip the Senate and return former President Trump to the White House. If the GOP achieves that trifecta, it can then put its own stamp on spending bills at an earlier date.

If Congress approves an interim spending bill this month – then gloms all of the other spending bills together in one omnibus package in November or December – President Biden and the Democrat-controlled Senate will have achieved their spending priorities through Sept. 30, 2025. However, a stopgap bill that simply renews all current funding until early next year truncates the Democrats’ influence. That scenario gives Republicans and Mr. Trump the opportunity to place their own imprimatur on spending much sooner.

But this plan must first pass the House.

The GOP would like to score some political points if the five Democrats who voted for the SAVE Act earlier vote no this time around. Republicans can then deploy this roll-call vote against those Democrats, some of whom are vulnerable this fall.

However, it’s not guaranteed that all Republicans would go for this plan. Some Republicans automatically vote against all interim spending bills. It’s about the math. So, it’s unclear if this game plan has the votes.

But let’s say the combo bill passes the House. The Democrat-controlled Senate would likely strip out the SAVE Act and send back to the House a shorter interim spending bill. Many Senate Democrats, and some Republicans, aren’t keen on the Freedom Caucus’s idea.

"This is a solution looking for a problem. There is no evidence that undocumented migrants vote," said Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz. "The problem doesn't exist, and it's creating a new system and requirements. There doesn't seem to be any necessity."

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Then the onus is on the House to align with the Senate before the Sept. 30 deadline.

That leaves Johnson with a major decision to make. Does he stick to his guns and flirt with a shutdown – weeks before the election – as control of the House swings in the balance? Or does he accept the Senate position and pass the bill with a combination of Democrats and Republicans. In fact, it’s possible the House would advance that version of the spending bill with more Democrats than Republicans. That would infuriate the right and possibly resurrect internal political problems for Johnson.

"We need to have a fallback position," said one senior House Republican. "We tend to pick fights we can’t win."

So, let’s say the citizenship/2025 spending plan fails on the floor. Then Republicans must likely accept the Senate’s position, no matter what. Or they face a government shutdown. It’s particularly challenging for Republicans if they fail to approve any bill whatsoever.

The House meets next week for four days, then four days the week after that. The big finale before the election is five days the week of Sept. 22. But it’s possible the House could give back the final week of September if Congress funds the government and shutdown scenarios are quashed.

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Many Republicans hanker to abandon Washington early to campaign. When asked about the chances of the House leaving early, a senior House GOP leadership characterized the chances as "high." So, some Republicans may be willing to accept anything just to escape D.C. early and hit the hustings.

Or here’s a more likely scenario: Some Republicans will crow about the House "not fighting for the conservative position" or "not doing enough to help former President Trump" with this spending plan. But secretly, they will be more than happy to see the original plan torpedoed and accept a shorter-term spending package that runs until late fall if they can go home and campaign a week earlier than expected.

The last thing Republicans need to wrestle with is a government shutdown just before the election. GOP fundraising is down. Which party controls the House comes down to a handful of races. And more time fighting over government spending in Washington versus campaigning is not the politically wise move at this stage with the House, Senate and White House all on the line.