Republican Deb Fischer holds slight lead over Dan Osborn in Nebraska Senate race

Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is holding on to a small lead over Independent Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate race, according to an independent survey released Monday.

The New York Times/Siena College poll showed that Fischer, a two-term incumbent, is ahead by 2 percentage points among likely voters — 48 percent to 46 percent — putting her lead squarely in the margin of error. Five percent of respondents said they were undecided to refused to answer.

Fischer’s reelection chances were a foregone conclusion mere months ago in the deep red state. But Osborn has kept the race close, prompting a top outside group to rush into the state with a $3 million ad buy for the final weeks.

Until the Times survey emerged, there had been scant public polling on the race, and private polls from both campaigns showed different views of it. A recent Fischer internal poll showed that she was up by 6 percentage points, while one commissioned by Osborn’s team showed him leading by the same margin. 

The incumbent's slim lead comes despite former President Trump leading statewide over Vice President Harris by 15 percentage points. In addition, the special election featuring Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) shows him leading Democratic candidate Preston Love Jr. by 18 points. 

Ricketts departed the governor’s mansion in Lincoln early last year and was almost immediately tapped to fill the vacancy left by Sen. Ben Sasse (R) in the upper chamber. He is currently running to win the final two years of Sasse’s term, and is expected to run again in 2026 for a full six years.

The battle over Fischer’s seat also suddenly gives Democrats an unexpected quasi-pickup opportunity — Osborn has said he won't caucus with either major party — in a map that otherwise has precious few for them. The best chance has widely been considered to be Texas, where incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has consistently held a lead over Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), though that margin has narrowed in the final month. 

The Cook Political Report recently shifted the Nebraska race from “likely” to “lean” Republican.

According to Decision Desk HQ’s latest forecast, Fischer has an 83 percent chance of winning next month.

Despite the recent uptick in financial support on Fischer’s behalf, Osborn and Democratic outside groups are outspending Republicans in the final stretch. They spent $3.4 million last week compared to $2.6 million on the GOP side.

The poll was conducted Oct. 23-26 among 1,194 voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.