Russia plans to restore military capabilities that it had in 2022 by 2028 – Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence

Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, believes that Russia will try to inflate conflicts in the Middle East, Africa, and the Balkans. And by 2028, Russia plans to restore the Russian Federation's military capabilities to the state they were in 2022.

Source: Oleksandr Lytvynenko for Interfax-Ukraine

Quote: "Putin believes that by failing to defeat Ukraine in three days of the large-scale war, the Kremlin has passed the point of no return in its relations with the West. There is no turning back. Putin can only triumphantly win or lose.

He is convinced that he can take back Ukraine and the rest of the 'historical Russian lands' and restore the Empire only within the framework of global redistribution of the world. Such a redistribution can last 10-15 years, accompanied by conflicts of various scales and intensities, possibly with nuclear weapons."

Details: According to Oleksandr Lytvynenko, the war against Ukraine is perceived by the Kremlin as an important but not the only front for the Russian Federation, which is waging a world war with the United States and the West as a whole. 

Lytvynenko believes that the Kremlin has set itself four tasks that it is currently solving: 

• ensure internal stability in the Russian Federation, mobilise the population and economy, and increase the production of weapons and military equipment.
• form an alternative coalition of states to the West, the "majority coalition". This Global South+ format should promote alternative models to the West (political, economic, financial, humanitarian, value, etc.).
• prepare for future aggression against other countries: Moldova and the Baltic states; Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia; the entire western part of the former USSR.
• inflating conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans. 

According to the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence, the volume of military production in Russia will be able support large-scale, high-intensity military operations in 2026, and in 2028, the Russian Federation will restore the military capabilities it had in 2022.

This is exactly what the Russian budget for 2024-2026 was formed for. Already in 2024, almost 40% of Russia's budget expenditures will be used to fund the war (29.4% or more than US$100 billion for defence, and 9.2% or US$34 billion for law enforcement and special services); in 2025 – 35% (US$93 billion and US$35.5 billion respectively), in 2026 – 30.5% (US$80 billion and US$37 billion respectively).

In 2023, these figures were 31.8% (US$69.5 billion for defence and US$35 billion for law enforcement and special services).

Russia will engage in increasing nuclear blackmail and try to convince Western elites that they will undoubtedly lose and that they should retreat peacefully: "The key role here will be to strengthen the military power of Russia, China and other countries of the majority coalition." 

Quote: "The outcome of the Russian war against Ukraine is of global significance and will be a powerful impetus for changing the global balance in one direction or another.

In his attempt to create an international coalition, Putin is flirting with the Russian Muslims. Despite the dissatisfaction of many Russians, the Kremlin allows Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to publicly execute a person suspected of desecrating the Koran out of court."

Details: In addition, Stalin's traditions of anti-Semitism are also considered in the Kremlin as a tool in establishing relations with the pro-Palestinian camp.

As for future conflicts, Moscow has already begun to declare "harassment of Russian speakers in the Baltic states" and "the right of peoples to self-determination". 

Lytvynenko believes that after the expulsion of Russian spy diplomats, Russians actively infiltrated the countries of Europe, primarily Southern Europe, with their agents, creating businesses, NGOs, etc: "There are signs of preparing the infrastructure for subversive activities for the great war (an approach tested during the Soviet era)."

In Lytvynenko’s opinion, the Russians are trying to take advantage of the weakening of the positions of the West, primarily France, in the Sahel and Africa as a whole: "We are talking about natural resources, attempts to restrict Europeans' access to uranium, oil and gas, and get rid of alternative sources of supply to Russia."

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