Russia will pressure on two fronts for some time but will not achieve breakthrough – Estonian Intelligence

The Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces has noted the increase in the number of attacks by the Russians, Ukrainian raids on the Kherson front and ammunition supply to Russia from North Korea.

Source: report of Estonian intelligence about the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine, as reported by European Pravda with reference to ERR

Details: Reportedly, the Russian occupying forces have increased the pressure on the two fronts: Avdiivka-Marinka and Kupiansk-Lyman.

Russia's goal is likely to be to retake the initiative they lost. The Russians are trying to block the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and deprive them of offensive potential.

The Estonian analysts present information about the concentration of the Russian forces both in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, which may be a sign that within the next few days or weeks the Russians will maintain the intensity of combat action on both fronts. Yet it is unlikely that any of the sides will be able to achieve the breakthrough on an operational level.

Estonian intelligence has also reported about the raids by the Defence Forces of Ukraine in Kherson Oblast and an alleged Ukrainian springboard on the left bank of the Dnipro River. At the same time, there are also reports that the Russians are feeling threatened.

The aim of these raids is likely to constrain the Russian forces. According to the latest reports, the Ukrainians are achieving this.

The Estonian intelligence also has information about ammunition supply from North Korea to Russia. Up to 1,000 standard sea containers have arrived in the city of Tikhoretsk in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai.

Taking into account that one such container has room for 300-350 projectiles for 152 mm guns, it can be assumed that Russia has received 300-350,000 ammunition sets. On average, the Russian artillery uses 10,000 projectiles a day; therefore, this quantity of projectiles will last for about a month.

According to the estimates of the Estonian Intelligence Centre, Russia has about four million projectiles.

If the intensity of artillery work is relatively low (10,000 attacks a day), then this stock will last for over a year. Thus, these supplies are not a sign that Russia is accumulating resources and preparing for a protracted war, the intelligence concluded.

Background: Earlier, Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia, stated that she believes in Ukraine’s victory, even despite the fact that Russia has more resources.    

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