Russia won't cease offensive on Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast despite record losses – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that the Kremlin is likely to pursue its attempts to capture the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, despite significant human and materiel losses.

Source: ISW

Details: The analysts suggest that the Kremlin is unlikely to relinquish its ambitions to capture Pokrovsk as part of its broader objective of seizing control of Donetsk Oblast. Despite record losses, Russian forces may persist with active hostilities in the region well beyond the winter of 2024-2025, according to ISW.

The UK Ministry of Defence reported that Russia suffered record losses in November 2024, with an average of 1,523 daily casualties, totalling more than 45,000 troops per month.

Intensive offensive operations, especially in western Donetsk Oblast, are exerting significant pressure on Russia's military and economic systems, the analysts report. Under these conditions, the Kremlin may be compelled to implement partial forced mobilisation, a move likely to exacerbate the nation's social and economic challenges.

The analysts suggest that the continuation of large-scale offensive operations, combined with record losses, is compelling the Russian command to weigh its pursuit of tactical objectives against the unavoidable rise in social tensions within the country.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 7 December:

• Russian forces have resumed their offensive operations directly aimed at seizing Pokrovsk through a turning manoeuvre from the south after successfully widening their salient south and southeast of the town.
• The Russian military command likely assesses that they have allocated sufficient manpower and materiel to the efforts to seize Kurakhove and seize or bypass Velyka Novosilka and level the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast in the coming weeks.
• Russian forces are likely attempting to flank Pokrovsk from the west and force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to minimise Russia's need to conduct frontal assaults on the towns’ eastern and southern approaches.
• The Russian military command will likely continue to trade Russian materiel and manpower for tactical territorial gains at an unsustainable rate during their offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk into 2025.
• Ukrainian forces continue to use drone strikes to contest Russia's presence in the northwestern Black Sea, including near gas extraction platforms.
• Ukrainian forces will reportedly receive increased access to Starshield, a more secure satellite network for Starlink terminals, which may give Ukrainian forces an advantage in the technological innovation arms race in which Ukrainian and Russian forces are currently engaged.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor appears to be testing the Russian sovereign internet in Russian regions populated by ethnic minorities.
• Roskomnadzor indicated that it may intend to force Russians to migrate their websites from Western hosting providers to Russian hosting providers likely to better enforce Russian censorship laws.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and reportedly advanced near Velyka Novosilka while Russian forces advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to forcibly impress migrants into signing military service contracts with the Ministry of Defense (MoD) as part of ongoing cryptomobilisation efforts.

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