Russian forces to undertake "localised offensive operations" – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War has suggested that Russia will likely focus on conducting "localised offensive operations" across the entire front in order to deplete Ukrainian forces.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian forces "will likely choose to conduct localised offensive operations as well as larger offensive efforts throughout the theatre in order to force Ukraine to commit scarce materiel and manpower to defensive efforts", ISW wrote.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Command Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Fito said on 19 January that the entire eastern front from Kupiansk to Bakhmut is active and reported intensified Russian assaults on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis and the Bakhmut front.

Fito warned that although Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian tanks and armoured vehicles, Russian forces have "a large reserve of resources".

Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets said that Russian forces have recently "switched to the offensive" in certain areas on the Lyman front, particularly west of Svatove and west and southwest of Kreminna.

Mashovets noted that Russian forces are likely preparing for larger-scale actions on the Lyman front in the coming weeks.

A prominent Kremlin-affiliated military blogger also claimed that Russian forces have begun a "massive offensive" on the Kupiansk-Lyman axis.

ISW previously said that Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupiansk (Kharkiv Oblast) in the coming weeks.

"Russian forces will be able to determine the location, tempo, and operational requirements of fighting in Ukraine if Ukraine commits itself to defensive operations throughout 2024 as some US officials are reportedly pressing Kyiv to do," ISW also said.

The Financial Times (FT) reported on January 19 that US officials are advocating for Ukraine to take a more "conservative" operational approach, focused on holding current territory and generating materiel and forces in 2024 for future counteroffensive operations in 2025.

However, an active defence across all fronts "would require routine and widespread Ukrainian counterattacks and therefore still demand that Ukrainian forces commit considerable offensive capabilities to the front," the ISW said. 

A purely defensive strategy for Ukraine would also mean that Russia has the strategic initiative, allowing it to launch large-scale attacks when it is best positioned to do so and forcing Ukraine to expend the scarce resources it is supposed to generate during the period of "active defence".

Former Ukrainian Defence Minister Andrii Zahorodniuk told the FT that focusing on defence without any offensive component would be a "mistake of historic proportions" for Ukraine, as it would hand Russian President Vladimir Putin the initiative and allow Putin to double down on his efforts to convince the West and the rest of the world that Ukraine cannot win the war.

Ukrainian Defence Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov similarly argued that Ukrainian forces need to continue to press Russian forces, particularly through operations that target Russian logistics in occupied Crimea.

"Offensive and defensive operations place similar requirements and constraints on Ukrainian materiel and personnel, and Ukrainian defensive operations do not necessarily present Ukraine with more opportunities to husband materiel and expand reserves for future counteroffensive operations," the ISW wrote.

The ISW also assessed that the pace of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine and the ongoing covert mobilisation campaign allow Russian troops to conduct regular rotations at operational level, but it is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to quickly build up operational reserves.

However, giving Russia a year or more to hold the initiative in the entire theatre would allow the Russian command to choose between prioritising "its own offensive efforts and operational requirements, amassing its own resources for future use, and forcing Ukraine to expend the resources Kyiv would be seeking to amass for future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations".

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