Russian troops advance in Donetsk Oblast, trying to encircle Velyka Novosilka – ISW

Russian troops continue to make tactical advances in the west of Donetsk Oblast, moving closer to encircling Velyka Novosilka and threatening Ukrainian supply lines leading to Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysts report that Russian forces continue to achieve significant tactical successes in western Donetsk Oblast, nearing the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and threatening Ukrainian communication lines. According to geolocation images published on 24 November, units of the 5th Tank Brigade of Russia's Eastern Military District advanced to the eastern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka.

Russian milbloggers claim that Russian forces are also advancing northeast and southeast of this settlement, attempting to force Ukrainian forces to retreat.

Additionally, Russian troops are conducting attacks in the southern direction. Geolocation data indicates that Russian forces have taken positions along Peremoha Street in Kurakhove and have approached Romanivka, northeast of Vuhledar.

Moreover, Russian forces continue efforts to eliminate a small "pocket" east of the O0510 road connecting Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka (southeast of Kurakhove and northeast of Vuhledar).

Geolocation data shows that Russian forces have taken positions along Peremoha Street in Kurakhove and advanced towards Romanivka, northeast of Vuhledar, reaching Peremoha Street in central Kurakhove.

Several Russian milbloggers reported on 25 November that Russian forces had captured Romanivka (northeast of Vuhledar) and secured new positions in fields near this settlement. While ISW currently lacks confirmation of Russian forces operating within Romanivka, geolocation footage published on 24 November shows two separate mechanised platoon attacks east of Romanivka near Illinka and Antonivka, indicating their advance towards the settlement.

Russian milbloggers note that Russian forces in this area are focused on forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat westward towards Kostiantynopil (northwest of Vuhledar).

Earlier, on 24 November, ISW assessed that Russian military command had several potential courses of action in this sector of the front, and Russian successes on 24-25 November align with two of these: attempts to advance westward from Kurakhove along the N15 road towards the Andriivka-Kostiantynopil line and efforts to bypass Velyka Novosilka, creating a threat to Ukrainian forces in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Analysts say that Russian forces have already captured positions along the N15 road east of Kurakhove and are likely to use their new positions along Peremoha Street (which runs south, perpendicular to the N15 road) for further advances westward through Kurakhove and along the N15 towards Dachne and Andriivka (both west of Kurakhove).

The recent advance of Russian troops to Peremoha Street in central Kurakhove suggests they are approximately 15 km east of Andriivka. Both Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets have identified Andriivka as a Russian operational target west of Kurakhove, as its capture would provide Russian forces with a stronger position to envelop the chain of settlements along the O0510 road northwest and northeast of Vuhledar.

Analysts note that Russian forces may continue advancing west along the N15 motorway towards Andriivka while simultaneously attacking the "pocket" northeast of Vuhledar along the Uspenivka-Hannivka-Romanivka line to force Ukrainian troops to retreat westward and avoid encirclement.

Such a manoeuvre could allow Russian forces to gain tactical positions in this area and straighten the line of contact from Sontsivka (northwest of Kurakhove) to Kostiantynopil, positioning troops approximately 23 km east of the border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 23 November:

• Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk Oblast and running into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
• Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Kaluga Oblast and an airbase in Kursk Oblast on the night of 24-25 November.
• Ukrainian military officials continue to warn of potential Russian ground operations against the city of Zaporizhzhia, though the timeline and scale of this offensive operation remain unclear due to the operational constraints imposed by ongoing Russian operations in Kursk and Donetsk oblasts.
• North Korea is reportedly expanding a key weapons facility likely used to supply Russia with ballistic missiles.
• The Kremlin signalled that it would remove the Taliban from its list of prohibited organisations amid intensified Russia-Taliban rapprochement.
• Russian forces recently advanced in southwestern Toretsk and south and southeast of Pokrovsk.
• Russian command posts are reportedly relying on Chinese-made radios for internal communications because Russia cannot domestically produce enough quality radios for the Russian military.

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