Russian troops enter outskirts of Stepove near Avdiivka

Russian troops conducted an offensive near Avdiivka on 10 November, the results of which have not been confirmed, while Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian troops had entered the outskirts of Stepove (3 kilometres northwest of Avdiivka) and were continuing to fight in the area.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: A Kremlin-linked military blogger added that Russian forces had also taken up positions on the railway line, allowing Russian forces to make tactical gains near Stepove.  According to another source, Russian troops are trying to encircle Avdiivka, thus depriving Ukrainian forces of the opportunity to hold positions in the rear areas on the Avdiivka front.

Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on 10 November. A Russian military blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Poima (10 kilometres southeast of Kherson and 4 kilometres from the Dnipro River), Pishchanivka (13 kilometres southeast of Kherson and 3 kilometres from the Dnipro River), Pidstepne (18 kilometres east of Kherson and 4 kilometres from the Dnipro River), and Krynok (30 kilometres northeast of Kherson and 2 kilometres from the Dnipro River).

A well-known Russian military blogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had established a partial foothold south of Krynky on 9 November, but had subsequently retreated because of Russian attacks.

Russian sources claimed that gaps in Russian air defence had allowed Ukrainian forces to operate with tactical attack aircraft near Krynky.

Geolocation footage released on 10 November indicated that Russian forces had advanced south of Krynky.

On 10 November, Russian troops continued their offensive on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis and recently made minor confirmed progress. Geolocation footage released on 7 and 9 November shows that Russian troops have made minor advances southwest of Petropavlivka (7 kilometres east of Kupiansk).

In addition, on 10 November, Ukrainian forces continued their offensive on the southern flank of Bakhmut and confirmed minor advances.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 10 November: 

• Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence stated that Ukrainian surface attack drones sank two Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) small landing ships in occupied Crimea on 10 November.
• Russian milbloggers continue to overreact to the Russian failure to push Ukrainian forces from positions in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces are launching significantly smaller and less frequent drone strikes against Ukraine in the past month than in previous months ahead of an anticipated large-scale winter strike campaign.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin again visited the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on 10 November, possibly in an effort to portray himself as an involved wartime leader ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in March 2024.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly hold his annual live "Direct Line" forum and annual press conference in tandem on 14 December, and the event will likely serve to promote his presidential campaign.
• Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets announced on 10 November that Bohdan Yermokhin, a 17-year-old Ukrainian whom Russian authorities forcibly deported from occupied Mariupol to Russia and attempted to conscript, will return to Ukraine.
• The United Kingdom-led Operation Interflex has achieved its goal of training 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers between June 2022 and December 2023.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations on 10 November along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Russian forces continue to struggle with low morale and poor discipline.
• Ukrainian Telegram channel Mariupol Resistance and Ukrainian Mariupol City Advisor Petro Andriushchenko reported on 10 November that Ukrainian partisans detonated a police car in occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast. 

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