Russian troops regroup and re-launch assaults on Avdiivka – ISW

Russian troops resumed their offensive near Avdiivka on 20 October and made minor advances. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: According to military analysts, the first Russian offensive operation in Avdiivka on 10 October resulted in significant losses of Russian equipment, and the fact that Russian troops regrouped and re-launched an offensive indicates that either Russian forces believe that they can actually take Avdiivka, or that the Russian military command is not prioritising offensive operations well and is not taking significant losses of equipment and personnel into account.

Geolocation footage released on 20 October shows that Russian troops have made minor advances west of Krasnohorivka (5 km north of Avdiivka). 

Russian military bloggers and a Ukrainian military observer claimed that Russian troops had captured a Ukrainian strong point near a waste heap just northeast of Avdiivka, advanced to a railway station north of Avdiivka, and advanced near the Tsarska Okhota restaurant south of Avdiivka. 

Another well-known Russian military blogger claimed that Russian troops had unsuccessfully attacked near Sieverne (6 km west of Avdiivka), south of Avdiivka, near Stepove (8 km northwest of Avdiivka), and near Novokalynove (11 km northwest of Avdiivka). 

Other military bloggers claimed that Russian troops had advanced by up to one kilometre on the Stepove-Berdychi line (8-10 km northwest of Avdiivka) on 19 October, and fighting was continuing near Berdychi on 20 October.

The Ukrainian General Staff said that Ukrainian forces had repelled Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Novokalynove, Stepnoye, Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka) and Sieverne.

On 20 October, the General Staff of Ukraine reported that over the past day near Avdiivka, Ukrainian troops had damaged and destroyed nearly 50 Russian tanks and more than 100 armoured vehicles. 

The Ukrainian military operating in Avdiivka reported on 20 October that over the past four days, Ukrainian forces had destroyed 200 Russian armoured vehicles. 

Vitaliy Barabash, Head of Avdiivka City Military Administration, said that Russian troops were trying to repair damaged equipment in the field.

Footage released on 20 October shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian TOS-1 thermobaric artillery system near Avdiivka. 

A Russian military blogger complained that the effectiveness of Russian counter-battery fire near Avdiivka is declining due to poor communication and the inability to accumulate ammunition before the offensive.

To quote ISW’s Takeaways for 20 October:

• Russian forces launched a renewed offensive push near Avdiivka on 20 October and marginally advanced, indicating that the Russian military command remains committed to offensive operations in the area despite heavy materiel and personnel losses.
• Ukrainian forces continued larger-than-usual ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on 20 October and established a confirmed presence in a settlement on the east bank.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources continue to indicate that the Russian units defending the east bank of Kherson Oblast are relatively less combat effective than other Russian forces elsewhere on the front.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast but did not make confirmed advances.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast, on 19 October to discuss the battlefield situation in Ukraine with Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, around Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made limited advances in some areas.
• Alexander Bastrykin, Russian Investigative Committee Head, argued on 20 October that Russian authorities should strip migrants of acquired Russian citizenship if they are unwilling to fight in Ukraine.

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