Russians face significant challenges in attacking Avdiivka – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are observing the Russian forces’ offensive operations in Avdiivka and the defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Source: the ISW

Details: Military analysts note that on 12 and 13 October, Ukrainian and US military officials said they were expecting Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expressed confidence in Ukrainian defences.

In addition, the ISW notes that Russian forces are using a larger number of armoured vehicles in current operations than usual.

The Institute says that opinions in the Russian information space remain divided over the prospects of Russian successes near Avdiivka and Ukraine's current capabilities.

Geolocation footage released on 13 October has indicated that the Russian forces have made minor advances north of Avdiivka.

Footage on 14 October indicated that the Russians had also advanced south of Avdiivka.

Russian sources also claimed on 13 and 14 October that Ukrainian defensive fortifications constituted a significant obstacle to the Russian advance around Avdiivka.

The Russians also pointed out that Russian problems with medical supplies also impeded Russian advances on the Avdiivka front.

At the same time, some Russian milbloggers have continued to praise Russian offensive efforts on 13 and 14 October and repeated the Kremlin's preferred narrative that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was over.

According to analysts, Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine on 14 October.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 14 October:

• US and Ukrainian officials reported on 12 and 13 October that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expressed confidence in Ukrainian defences.
• The Russian information space remains divided on the prospects of Russian successes near Avdiivka and on current Ukrainian capabilities.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine on 14 October and advanced west of Donetsk City.
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) will maintain some vessels at its main Sevastopol naval base amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels, as the Russian Navy’s main dry dock on the Black Sea is in Sevastopol.
• Armenia ratified the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Rome Statute on 14 October, obliging Armenia to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he enters Armenia due to the ICC’s outstanding arrest warrant, directly after Putin’s efforts on 13 October to claim that the Russia-Armenia relationship is not deteriorating.
• Ukrainian forces will reportedly begin training on F-16 fighter jets in the US next week.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Relatives of Russian mobilised men and recruited prisoners continue to complain that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Russian military command are mistreating troops on the frontlines – especially on the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to establish patronage programmes between Russian federal subjects and occupied areas in order to integrate occupied territories into Russia.

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