Russians slightly advance on 2 fronts – ISW

Russian troops have made minor advances on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and in the area of Avdiivka.

Source: Іnstitute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian troops continued their offensive on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and made little progress there on 11 December. Geolocation footage released on 10 December showed that Russian forces had made minor advances southeast of Dibrova (7 kilometres southwest of Kreminna). 

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian forces had repelled at least four Russian attacks on the Kupiansk front near Synkivka (9 kilometres east of Kupiansk) and Petropavlivka (7 kilometres east of Kupiansk) and at least five Russian attacks on the Lyman front near Makiivka (23 kilometres northwest of Kreminna) and Terny (17 kilometres west of Kreminna).

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, said that Russian troops were conducting offensive actions on the Kupiansk front in the areas of Lyman Pershyi (12 kilometres north-east of Kupiansk), Novoselivske (14 kilometres north-west of Svatove), Stelmakhivka (15 kilometres north-west of Svatove) and Lyman.

Syrskyi also reported that the Russian military is deploying assault units near Syinkivka that were previously in reserve.

Russian troops continued their offensive near Avdiivka on 11 December and have made little progress recently. Geolocation footage released on 9 December showed that Russian forces had made minor advances east of Stepove (3 kilometres northwest of Avdiivka). 

Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian troops had carried out a tactical offensive operation in the area of the railway near Stepove and in the north of Stepove.

In addition, Russian forces continued their offensive to the west and southwest of Donetsk and reportedly advanced there on 11 December. On 10 and 11 December, Russian military bloggers claimed that Russian forces had advanced in northwestern Marinka (directly west of Donetsk), but that Ukrainian forces were still holding positions in the town.

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct ground operations near Krynky (30 kilometres northeast of Kherson and 2 kilometres from the Dnipro River) on the eastern (left) bank of Kherson Oblast. Russian military bloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces had strengthened their positions in the area south of Krynky and that Ukrainian troops had taken advantage of the bad weather to transport 30-50 personnel to the eastern bank.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 11 December: 

• The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) announced on 11 December that Russia will conduct voting for the 2024 presidential election in occupied Ukraine, likely in an attempt to legitimise the Russian occupation and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 10-11 December.
• The United Kingdom and Norway will lead a coalition aimed at providing short-term and long-term assistance to the Ukrainian Navy as the UK announced additional maritime aid provisions to Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his intention to expand Russian naval capabilities in areas well beyond Ukraine and Eastern Europe, likely in an effort to strengthen and expand Russia’s ability to threaten the West.
• The Russian State Duma approved amendments allowing Russian courts to fine or assign compulsory work to foreigners who are convicted of crimes in Russia, likely as part of ongoing efforts to coerce migrants into Russian military service.
• Dmitry Medvedev, Russian National Security Council Deputy Chairperson, announced on 11 December that the Russian government will make "targeted changes" to the Russian constitution.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast on 11 December and advanced in some areas.
• Ukrainian military officials indicated that Russian forces recently intensified mechanised offensive operations near Avdiivka.
• A Russian law went into effect on 11 December likely aimed at preventing Russian conscripts from fleeing military service.
• Russia continued to illegally deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia under the guise of rehabilitation and medical programs as Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova continued attempts to dispute this practice.

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