Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1046: Ukraine lost 0.6% of its territory in 2024 as Russia suffered record casualties

Exclusives

Russia’s human loss/fighting area ratio exceeds all modern conflicts except Korean War. Russian forces are losing up to 1,500 soldiers per day in 2024 while gaining minimal territory, marking the least efficient force-to-territory ratio in modern military operations.

Why is Ukraine losing ground? Mobilization crisis and command failures exposed. Ukraine’s military problems can no longer be ignored as mobilization failures and systemic issues lead to mounting territorial losses

The end of an era: Russia loses its gas grip on Europe. Moscow’s most potent leverage over Europe – its gas pipelines – has finally run dry, and there’s no turning back the clock.

Military

Heaviest fighting on Saturday reported in Pokrovsk direction – General Staff of Ukraine. Since July 2024, Pokrovsk has become a relentless battleground, with Russian forces launching massive offensives at great cost to seize the strategic city and disrupt Ukrainian supply routes.

Ukraine lost 3,600 km² to Russia in 2024, up to 20 km² daily in November. In 2024, Ukraine saw significant territorial losses to Russian forces, primarily in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.

Frontline report: Tactical missteps doom Russian offensive on Terny. A Russian attempt to capture high ground near Terny in early December collapsed as Ukrainian forces systematically eliminated stranded troops and armored vehicles.

As of 4 JAN 2025, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 794760 (+1510)
• Tanks: 9679 (+2)
• APV: 20093 (+23)
• Artillery systems: 21578 (+23)
• MLRS: 1257
• Anti-aircraft systems: 1032
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 331 (+1)
• UAV: 21356 (+107)
• Cruise missiles : 3006 (+3)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 32843 (+73)

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine intelligence chief’s Birthday gift: Ukraine cyberattack disrupts Russian military logistics. On 4 January, coinciding with intelligence chief Budanov’s birthday, Ukrainian cyber specialists struck RegionTransService, a key contractor supporting Russian military railways.

Ukraine shoots down 34 Russian drones out of 81, with some damaging private homes. Ukrainian air forces successfully intercepted 34 Shahed-type attack drones across Ukraine, while 47 decoy drones were rendered ineffective by electronic countermeasures.

Frontline report: Ukrainian deep strikes inside Russia cripple logistics and military command. Ukraine’s precision attacks on Russian logistics and infrastructure halted supply chains, destroyed assets, and strained Moscow’s military strategies.

International

Blinken: Front line in Ukraine unlikely to shift significantly. “If there’s a ceasefire, then, in Putin’s mind, the ceasefire is likely to give him time to rest, to refit, to reattack,” he told The New York Times.

“Not if, but when”: NATO prepares for Russian attack on Finland, Baltics and Norway. NATO sources confirm to a Finnish newspaper Iltalehti that Russia maintains detailed military plans for operations against NATO’s eastern flank, which involve a three-pronged offensive using up to 600,000 troops.

FT: China warned Russia over nuclear threats, Blinken reveals. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Financial Times that Beijing intervened to discourage Moscow from nuclear escalation in Ukraine, saying “Don’t go there.”

Thousands protest Fico’s pro-Russian stance in Bratislava as Ukraine tensions rise. After weeks of controversial moves toward Moscow, thousands of Slovaks are pushing back against Prime Minister Robert Fico’s apparent pivot away from traditional Western allies.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian missile attack claims life of distinguished Ukrainian educator in Chernihiv. Oleksiy Halionka, a 72-year-old renowned Ukrainian philologist and educator, was killed in his home hit by a ballistic missile on 3 January 2025.

The third underground school nears completion in a major Ukrainian city 30 km from the frontline. This underground school in Zaporizhzhia will accommodate 1,000 students in two shifts.

2-year-olds among injured as Russia strikes residential building in Sumy Oblast. “Search and rescue operations are ongoing as we work to locate any potential survivors in the damaged sections of the building,” a spokesperson for the regional administration stated.

Ukraine criticizes UN report on POW treatment as hundreds return from Russian captivity with life-threatening injuries. Ukraine’s ombudsman criticizes UN report’s equivalence of POW treatment, citing systematic pattern of returned Ukrainian prisoners bearing fatal injuries from Russian captivity while investigations address isolated Ukrainian violations.

Political and Legal Developments

ISW: The Kremlin maintains demands of Ukrainian capitulation, which makes any negotiations impossible. The Kremlin’s rhetoric suggests Russia won’t accept any compromise scenarios until it has the ability to continue fighting.

Poland drafts evacuation plans amid rising security concerns. The bill mandates that at least 0.3% of Poland’s annual gross national product (GNP) be allocated to improving evacuation readiness.

New Developments

Russian commander who killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians blown up at Russian base. A Russian commander implicated in the deadly Hroza village strike was critically wounded in an explosion at his base in Shuya, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

Moldova’s Russian-controlled Transnistria return to wooden rural stoves amid Russian gas cutoff. Transnistrian authorities are leveraging local timber resources to prevent a humanitarian crisis, establishing distribution points across all districts.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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