Russo-Ukrainian war, day 616: Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief reveals strategy to win war as North Korea sends one million shells to Russia

Exclusive

The myth of a powerful Ukrainian diaspora was proven wrong by Russia’s invasion. Western military aid flows into Ukraine, with public and elite opinion firmly on Kyiv’s side. But the Ukrainian diaspora has not driven this support, despite its Cold War reputation.

Effectiveness of Russian soldiers grows, Ukrainian company commander says. In a candid interview, Ukrainian army commander tells about forging a ragtag army fighting with a potpourri of weapons, Russia’s improved fighting tactics, and the growing chasm between the military and the home front

Ukrainian writers explain what it’s really like to live through war. War forces sudden adulthood on a generation as Ukrainians take up the mantle of responsibility. A discussion at the Lviv Book Forum reveals how it’s like to live when your country is at war.

Ukraine’s nukeless fate: the untold story behind the Budapest betrayal. As early as 1993, Russia openly claimed Sevastopol in Crimea to be a Russian city, sought to return Crimea under its control, and refused to recognize Ukrainian borders. The US leadership at that time clearly saw this but still pushed towards nuclear disarmament of Ukraine

Military

ATACMS strikes force Russia to relocate helicopters from southern Ukraine. Russia redeployed at least 21 attack helicopters from occupied Berdiansk to Taganrog.

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief reveals his strategy to defeat Russia. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi told the Economist that Ukraine needs high-technology weaponry to overcome Russia’s advantage in the skies, on the ground, and in electronic warfare.

As of 01 Nov 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 301490 (+680)
    • Tanks: 5223 (+12)
    • APV: 9834 (+30)
    • Artillery systems: 7250 (+23)
    • MLRS: 846 (+2)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 563 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 321
    • Helicopters: 324
    • UAV: 5468 (+28)
    • Cruise missiles: 1547 (+1)
    • Warships/boats: 20
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 9624 (+34)

Intelligence and technology

North Korea’s secret arms shipment to Russia exposed by South Korean intel. Since August 2023, North Korea has sent over one million artillery shells to Russia.

Ukraine’s Intelligence: Fake Putin death news test Russian reactions. Fake news of Putin’s death was spread by Russia itself in order to gauge reactions and analyze individuals, elites and media, a Ukrainian intelligence official said.

International

Putin’s nuclear bluff: How the West and China called him out. According to the Financial Times, Russia’s president backed down from his nuclear threats against Ukraine after facing strong opposition from the UK, USA, France, and China.

Switzerland extends protected status for Ukrainians until 2025. The state’s government allocated $3,300 per refugee annually for language classes and other integration efforts until March 2025.

Ukraine to receive $353 mn in EU assistance. The EU Commission is to provide financial aid for Ukraine for anti-corruption measures, business support, environmental protection and digitalization.

Ukraine aid a sticking point in US budget bill. US President will not accept a budget bill that does not include assistance to Ukraine.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian bombs hit kindergarten in southern Ukraine. In a harrowing assault, the Russian Air Force bombed a kindergarten in Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast, with no immediate reports of casualties.

MFA: Ukraine works to evacuate citizens stranded in Gaza through Egypt’s crossing. There are currently 358 people in the Gaza Strip who are willing to leave; mostly women and children.

At least three killed, 29 injured in two days: Civilian casualties from Russia’s daily attacks rise in Ukraine. Russian everyday attacks on residential areas near the frontline continue, escalating the daily civilian casualties. Today saw at least one civilian killed in Russian strikes with 15 more getting injured. Yesterday’s fire attacks killed two, injured 14.

Russian night attack across Ukraine kills one, injures two, damages oil refinery. Overnight into 1 November, Russia bombarded Ukraine in waves with 20 drones and guided missiles. Air raids across Ukraine lasted 6+ hours.

Political and legal developments

Ukraine slams Russia’s visit to Türkiye from occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry expressed its serious concern over the visit of the Russian delegation from the annexed Crimea to Türkiye and asked Türkiye to clarify its position on the matter.

Poll: Corruption still major concern for Ukrainians despite war. The issues of personal well-being concern the Ukrainian population less than injustice due to corruption.

ISW: Russian officials’ concerns about maintaining control over Dagestan increased. Following antisemitic unrest in Dagestan, Kadyrov instructed security forces in Chechnya to fire warning shots at protesters before “shooting them in the head.”

New developments

Poll: Most Russians ready to end war in Ukraine without giving up occupied territories. 70% of Russians are ready to support Putin’s decision to end hostilities in Ukraine, but on condition that all occupied territories remain under Russian control, according to Levada Center’s poll.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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