Russo-Ukrainian war, day 617: Russians regroup near Avdiivka for another assault; Germany provides new military aid package

Russian military regrouping near Donetsk’s Avdiivka, possibly preparing for a new wave of infantry-led assaults in the area. Ukraine conducted its first ATACMS missile strike on Russian-occupied Crimea. Germany provides military aid to Ukraine, including tanks, APCs, radars, and winter supplies, while the US prepares a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine, with laser-guided munitions to counter Russian drones.

Exclusives

OSINT data: Russia’s assault on Avdiivka costliest since all-out war outset in terms of equipment losses. Geoconfirmed’s investigation confirmed Russia’s major equipment losses in the Avdiivka offensive —197-215 combat vehicles damaged or destroyed over three weeks. This is “by far the most costly Russian assault” since the start of the all-out war, the investigators said.

The myth of a powerful Ukrainian diaspora was proven wrong by Russia’s invasion. Western military aid flows into Ukraine, with public and elite opinion firmly on Kyiv’s side. But the Ukrainian diaspora has not driven this support, despite its Cold War reputation.

Military

Military: Russians regrouping, trying to encircle Donetsk’s Avdiivka. The Ukrainian military says Russian assaults near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast have temporarily decreased as they regroup for another attack. Meanwhile, Russian attacks injured two more civilians in the region on 1 November.

ISW: Russia likely preparing another infantry-led wave of assaults at Avdiivka. In the area of Donetsk Oblast’s Avdiivka, Russian forces are altering their tactics, decreasing ground attacks and emphasizing heavy artillery fire. This suggests preparations for upcoming infantry-led assaults, as per ISW.

Military: Ukrainian forces destroy another Russian Su-25 ground attack aircraft. Over the past day, missile and artillery units of the Tavria group of forces completed 1,068 fire missions, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi added.

Top Ukrainian general says Ukraine already hit occupied Crimea with ATACMS missiles. General Valery Zaluzhnyi’s interview reveals Ukraine’s first ATACMS missile strike on Russian-occupied Crimea on October 30, underlining Ukraine’s intensified operations in the region, which is the “linchpin” of Putin’s imperial restoration project.

Germany provides Ukraine with tanks, APCs, radars, and winter kit. Germany provides Ukraine with a new military aid package, including armored vehicles, drones, tanks, and essential supplies such as winter clothing sets.

Reuters: US prepares new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine. The upcoming aid package for Ukraine will include $300 million worth of laser-guided munitions to counter Russian drones.

Security Council: Ukraine gears up for Russia’s winter attacks on critical infrastructure. As winter approaches, Russia’s increasing missile buildup for potential attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, Ukraine’s Security Council chief says.

UK intel: Replacing SAM systems lost in Ukraine may weaken Russia’s broader air defenses. The Russian air defense’s recent loss of four SAM launchers in Ukraine highlights the inadequacies of Russia’s Integrated Air Defense System and puts a strain on its remaining systems, according to British intelligence.

Intelligence and technology

Reuters: Senior US Republicans call Biden to send long-range missiles to Ukraine. “Clearly, it is time for you to finish the job on ATACMS,” the lawmakers wrote to US President.

Seoul: North Korea likely sends missiles as well as shells to Russia. North Korea has likely supplied Russia with various missiles, including short-range ballistic, anti-tank, and portable surface-to-air types, in addition to over one million artillery shells.

Ukraine develops new electronic warfare system to disrupt Russian drones. The domestically produced Piranha AVD 360 system creates a defense perimeter extending 600 meters around armored vehicles, jamming the signals that control Russian drones.

International

Cyprus becomes 30th country to join G7 declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine. “We will continue to strengthen European security together and deepen our bilateral cooperation,” President Zelenskyy said.

US imposes new sweeping Russia sanctions over war in Ukraine. The US initiates comprehensive sanctions against Russia, with the new package centering on energy, drones, and entities in response to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Hundreds are impacted, as per Reuters.

Ukraine designates Nestle int’l sponsor of war for business in Russia. Despite the Swiss food industry leader Nestlé’s pledge to suspend exports and imports to Russia, except for essential goods, Russian store shelves remain stocked with Nestlé products.

US charges two Russian-Canadians, US citizen with sanctions-evading electronics shipments to Russia. Two Russian-Canadian nationals and a Brooklyn resident have been arrested in Manhattan on charges related to illegally exporting electronics to entities associated with Moscow’s military, as alleged $10 million exports violated US sanctions against Russia. The trio used two Brooklyn-based companies as intermediaries to facilitate these shipments.

Humanitarian and social impact

European Investment Bank to allocate €450 million for Ukraine’s infrastructure recovery. Two critical infrastructure rebuilding projects are expected to receive their first funding tranches of €100 million each by the end of 2023, part of the total €450 million allocated for such initiatives.

Russia drops 20 glide bombs on Kherson Oblast within 24 hours. The Russian Air Force continues to target residential areas of Ukrainian towns with glide bombs and missiles.

Political and legal developments

German FM Baerbock supports Ukraine’s EU membership bid, pushes for EU reforms. Germany’s FM Baerbock is confident in advancing Ukraine’s EU membership and stresses the imperative of readying the EU for expansion, with key concerns including EU funds, the use of veto power, and the size of institutions.

Biden urges Congress to pass aid package for Ukraine and Israel. John Kirby, a White House official, said that US President insists on approving his request for security assistance for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the US southern border.

Russian losses

As of 02 Nov 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 302420 (+930)
• Tanks: 5241 (+18)
• APV: 9877 (+43)
• Artillery systems: 7292 (+42)
• MLRS: 850 (+4)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 566 (+3)
• Aircraft: 322 (+1)
• Helicopters: 324
• UAV: 5488 (+20)
• Cruise missiles : 1549 (+2)
• Warships/boats: 20
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 9658 (+34)

Read the daily review for Thu Nov 02 2023 here

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