Russo-Ukrainian war, Day 629: Heavy losses in Avdiivka signal strategic setback for Russia; battles rage as Russia renews Donbas offensive

Exclusives

Sleuths find Russian forces responsible for deadly missile strike on Ukrainian pizzeria. Colonel Vitaly Bobyr has been named by investigators as the Russian officer in command of forces that struck the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk with cruise missiles in June, killing 13 civilians

Border blockade by Polish drivers “damaging for all,” Ukrainians say. Queues with waiting times over 150 hours formed due to blockades by Polish carriers won’t solve issues between two major markets. “It’s a question of arrangements between Ukraine and the EU,” head of the Polish Department at Central Europe’s Institute, Jakub Olchowski, said.

Military

Zelenskyy: Russia losing more troops, equipment at Avdiivka than it did at Bakhmut. President Zelenskyy’s address emphasizes Russia’s substantial losses at Avdiivka compared to Bakhmut, suggesting these losses could negatively impact Russia’s strategic position in the war.

Ukraine: Russians attack in seven directions. 80 clashes across Donbas as Russia renews offensive

ISW: limited Russian gains in East Ukraine amid fog of war in Kherson. Russian troops made marginal advances around towns in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, an ISW report says, while the operational picture in Kherson remains unclear after contradictory claims in Russian state media.

Ukraine downs five Russian reconnaissance drones. Ukrainian air defense units destroyed three Russian Merlin-VR and two Orlan-10 drones in the southern Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts.

Russian explosive plant, Kinzhal producer hit in overnight drone attack. In a series of overnight attacks on 14 November, explosives-laden drones struck two key Russian defense sites outside Moscow and in western Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, according to Russian Telegram channels cited widely by Russian media.

Intelligence and technology

UK: Russia to boost laser-guided artillery shell production amid wider ammo shortfalls. Russia plans to increase manufacturing of its laser-guided Krasnopol artillery rounds to compensate for ammo shortages, but winter weather may interfere with laser guidance and reduce accuracy, as per UK intelligence.

Rheinmetall to supply Ukraine with 25 Leopard 1 tanks in 2024. Rheinmetall awarded contract to supply Ukraine with 32 Leopard 1 systems, including 25 main battle tanks, recovery vehicles, and training tanks, plus support services, with delivery in 2024.

International

EU will not supply 1 mn rounds to Ukraine by March, foreign minister confirms. Kuleba decried bureaucratic roadblocks and other obstacles preventing the EU from meeting its pledge of 1 million rounds for Ukraine

Borrell: EU could achieve 1 mn artillery goal for Ukraine by redirecting exports. 40% of EU shells are exported to third countries. If that changes, EU could still hit goal of 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, says the bloc’s chief diplomat

Polish truckers reject Ukraine’s compromise offers, continue strike. Ukraine on Monday offered concessions aimed at ending a strike by Polish truckers, but protesters called the steps insufficient and vowed to continue blocking border checkpoints.

EU reporter: Musk to speak at Russian AI conference. The Tesla founder and Twitter (X) owner is slated to speak at AI Journey 2023 about Grok, a new competitor to ChatGPT

Investigation: pro-Putin German journalist received $ 660k from Russia. An investigation found prominent reporter Hubert Seipel, who reliably backed Kremlin narratives, was funded by an oligarch with ties to Putin’s personal finances.

Humanitarian and social impact

Denmark becomes first contributor to UN’s new Ukraine Community Recovery Fund. Denmark leads as first donor to the UN’s Ukraine Community Recovery Fund, focusing on community-level rebuilding and sustainable local economic development, setting a collaborative recovery model.

Official: Russian army “eliminated” almost all Ukrainian literature in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk. Ukraine’s Ex-Deputy Prosecutor General accuses Russia of eradicating Ukrainian literature in occupied territories, by replacing local literature with Russian publications, hints at cultural genocide.

EU provides additional €110 million in humanitarian aid for war-affected Ukrainians. To help vulnerable Ukrainians through winter, the EU is providing more humanitarian assistance and deploying emergency energy generators.

Political and legal developments

Slovakia informs NATO it won’t supply military aid to Ukraine. Slovak Defence Minister Kalinak tells NATO’s Stoltenberg about Slovakia terminating Ukraine’s military aid, with a stated focus on humanitarian and civilian support initiatives.

EU prepares “Plan B” as Hungary blocks € 500 mn of Ukraine aid. With the €20 bn EU fund for long-term military support for Ukraine facing hiccups and obstruction from Hungary, the EU is floating a Plan B

New developments

Russian convicted over Putin critic Politkovskaya’s murder pardoned after fighting in Ukraine. Sergei Khadzhikurbanov who was given 20-year prison sentence Russia in 2014 for his role in assassinating the investigative journalist is now pardoned after he fought in Ukraine and remains in Russia’s army.

Russian losses

As of 14 Nov 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 313470 (+920)
• Tanks: 5362 (+8)
• APV: 10086 (+7)
• Artillery systems: 7589 (+20)
• MLRS: 882 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 580
• Aircraft: 322
• Helicopters: 324
• UAV: 5649 (+15)
• Cruise missiles: 1561
• Warships/boats: 22
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 9973 (+24)

Read the daily review for Tue Nov 14 2023 here

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