Russo-Ukrainian war, day 637: Fighting for Ukraine continues despite snow and cold

Exclusive

Russian attack was inevitable for Ukraine, acclaimed writer says. In one of his works, Yuri Andrukhovych wrote that there is hope for Moscow, but – he exaggerated – it may take 500 years. Now, the writer doesn’t think he exaggerated that much.

Why Putin is paranoid about Ukraine’s agency. And why any scenario of peace for Ukraine should be based on what the Ukrainian society decides to do about its own future

Military

Frontline report: Ukrainians launch successful counterattack as Russians regroup near Avdiivka. During Russian regrouping, Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the Avdiivka sector, seizing rail control near Stepove, capturing equipment, and preparing defenses for potential counterattacks.

Ukraine downs all 14 Russian “kamikaze” drones during nighttime attack. Overnight, Ukrainian forces shot down all 14 Shahed drones Russia used to attack Ukraine. A Russian Kh-22 missile hit an open field, causing no injuries.

Military: Russian assault actions, air strikes rapidly intensified. Ukraine’s southern front’s commander reported an escalation in Russian assault actions and airstrikes, alongside a rise in Russian military losses.

Intelligence and Technology

Germany updates the delivered aid list with more military vehicles and crypto phones for Ukraine. Germany updated the list of delivered military assistance to Ukraine with additional infantry vehicles, a tank, secure communication devices, and ammunition. The update comes the next day after Germany announced a new €1.3 billion military aid package.

Lithuania announces new military aid package for Ukraine. Ukraine has received three million units of 7.62×51 mm ammunition, remote detonation systems, and winter equipment from Vilnius, the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry has announced.

BTA: Ukraine to receive armored vehicles from Bulgaria. The National Assembly of Bulgaria has ratified an agreement between the country’s Interior Ministry and Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense on the provision of armored vehicles to Kyiv, as per BTA.

EU commissioner advocates for redirecting 40% of EU ammo exports to fulfill Ukraine’s million-round need. By March, the EU will be able to produce one million artillery shells a year, but 40% of production is contracted to be exported outside Europe, EU Commissioner Breton said, emphasizing, “Ukraine must become a priority.”

International

EU sends new micro-financial assistance worth over $1,6 million to Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced a new micro-financial assistance worth over $1,6 million to Ukraine.

Politico: Hungarian Prime Minister Orban threatens to block Ukraine from joining EU. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has threatened to block the EU’s assistance for Ukraine and the country’s future accession to the bloc until EU leaders agree to review their support strategy for Kyiv in a letter to EU Council chief Charles Michel, Politico has reported.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Russian actress killed while performing for occupiers in Donetsk Oblast. Russian actress Polina Menshikh was in an alleged Ukrainian strike while giving a performance to invaders who celebrated the Russian Day of Missile Forces and Artillery on 19 November, her theatre has said.

Russia eradicates Ukrainian literature in occupied territories, replaces it with Russian books. Russia has sent an estimated 2.5 million Russian books to the occupied Ukrainian territories in 2023, Ukraine’s National Resistance Center reported.

Political and Legal Developments

Poll: 45% of Americans consider Ukraine aid too high. A new poll finds 45% of Americans consider US aid to Ukraine excessive, down from 52% in October; GOP opposition decreases from 69% to 59%, with 38% of Americans viewing spending as right.

New Developments

Reuters: Ukrainian women join coal mines to fill staff gaps amid Russian war. Since the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022, the country’s coal mining industry has undergone a transformative shift, Reuters has reported.

Al Jazeera: Poland charges members of Russian-linked criminal group spying on Polish aid to Ukraine. Poland has charged a group of 16 members of a spy network organized by the Russian intelligence service arrested earlier this year, according to Al Jazeera.

UK intel: Krynky battles undermine Russian hopes for quiet Dnipro sector. The ongoing, smaller-scale battles in east-bank Kherson’s Krynky suggest strategic complications for Russia, who had intended to de-escalate the area following their withdrawal from the Dnipro’s west bank last year, as per UK intelligence.

Ukraine Border Service: Ukraine-Slovakia border unblocked. Following a blockade by Slovak carriers, a Ukrainian-Slovak border checkpoint has resumed its scheduled truck crossings, with customs services reporting normal operations.

ISW: Vehicles and drones struggle but fighting persists in Ukraine frontline amid rainy and snowy conditions. Despite rain and snow on Ukraine’s eastern and southern fronts, Ukrainian and Russian military actions continue with operational adaptability, and an escalation of fighting is anticipated with winter’s approach, ISW says.

Read our earlier daily review here

As of 22 Nov 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • Personnel: 320670 (+850)
  • Tanks: 5446 (+7)
  • APV: 10188 (+14)
  • Artillery systems: 7769 (+17)
  • MLRS: 899
  • Anti-aircraft systems: 589 (+1)
  • Aircraft: 323
  • Helicopters: 324
  • UAV: 5784 (+13)
  • Cruise missiles: 1564
  • Warships/boats: 22
  • Submarines: 1
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 10159 (+925)

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