Russo-Ukrainian war, day 642: Over 70 clashes across frontline, Russian offensive on Avdiivka intensifies

Exclusive

Romania walks tightrope to avoid provoking Russia as drones crash into its soil. NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana may downplay the Russian drones dropping into Romania as accidental, but Costel Tanase and other fearful border residents want a more forceful response to what they see as deliberate strikes.

Why you can’t compare casualties in Ukraine and Gaza. The UN’s tally is being done with methods that are rendered meaningless in the realities of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Nevertheless, it continues to be reported as if it was the real casualty rate

Military

Authorities: Battle for Avdiivka intensifies as Russia launches offensive from two new directions. Russians keep storming the Avdiivka Coke plant, yet Ukrainian troops maintain control of the territory, the head of City Military Administration, said.

General Staff: Ukraine repels 26 Russian attacks near Bakhmut within 24 hours. Over the past 24 hours, a total of 79 skirmishes between Ukrainian and Russian forces took place on the front line, with the most intense fighting near Bakhmut and Avdiivka

Frontline report: Ukrainian forces tactically withdraw, set trap for advancing Russians. By withdrawing from a ravaged industrial zone near Avdiivka, Ukrainian defenders pulled Russian forces into a trap where they faced major casualties.

Ukrainian military discover Chinese mines in Russian positions. Ukrainian forces uncovered Chinese-made munitions, including 60mm mortar shells at Russian positions near the occupied city of Melitopol, which is raising new questions about potential Chinese military assistance to Russia.

The Economist: Russia’s EW superiority emerges as Ukraine’s key weakness on frontline. Ukraine confronts Russian advanced electronic warfare capabilities, facing a shortage of Western EW assistance, hindered by US export limits and the fears of NATO technology falling to China.

Russia loses its first brand-new all-terrain military vehicle in Ukraine. The Russian military’s first loss of the Plastun-SN, an all-terrain vehicle introduced in autumn 2023, has been confirmed in Ukraine.

As of 27 Nov 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 325580 (+750)
    • Tanks: 5520 (+7)
    • APV: 10282 (+3)
    • Artillery systems: 7875 (+1)
    • MLRS: 907
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 597
    • Aircraft: 323
    • Helicopters: 324
    • UAV: 5905 (+4)
    • Cruise missiles : 1565
    • Warships/boats: 22
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 10299 (+911)

Intelligence and technology

British intel: Russian casualties in Avdiivka among highest of war. Throughout November, daily Russian military casualties in Ukraine averaged 931 killed or wounded per day, reported by UK intelligence as “plausible.”

ISW: Recent attack on several Russian cities was a Ukraine’s military intelligence’s special operation. Overnight on 26 November, Ukrainian forces also conducted artillery and HIMARS strikes on power distribution substations, causing electricity outages.

International

“Ukraine is doing everything to strengthen the fight against corruption,” EU official says. Věra Jourová, EU Vice-President for Values and Transparency, acknowledges Ukraine’s headway in anti-graft for EU accession, but points to the essential task of passing a lobbying law as the next step.

Germany allocates additional € 300 mn for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s national energy company Ukrenergo “is among the main beneficiaries” and will receive €200 million of the total German contribution to an Energy Support Fund for Ukraine.

Minister: Czechia running low on weapons for Ukraine. Czechia facing shortage of suitable weapons for Ukraine; plans to grant export licenses to private firms for military support.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russia preparing to deport more children from occupied Ukrainian territories. Russian occupation administrations have been ordered to compile new lists of Ukrainian children without guardianship for potential deportation, Ukraine’s National Resistance Center reported.

Heavy snowfall leaves 2,000 Ukrainian towns in the dark. The schools in the Kyiv Oblast shifted to remote learning on 27 Nov. Several roads in the Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts were closed because of heavy snow and low visibility.

Political and legal developments

Ukraine’s PM holds talks with EU Vice-President for Values and Transparency. “The principle of ‘Russia will pay’ should be implemented next year,” Denys Shmyhal said, emphasizing the need to further develop a mechanism for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets

Border blockade: Poland presents Ukraine with carriers’ demands. Among demands are restrictions on Ukrainian trucks entering Poland and probes of Ukrainian firms started after Russia’s invasion.

New developments

Netherlands hands over Crimean Scythian artifacts to Ukraine. After a decade of legal proceedings, the Dutch museum transferred 600 artefacts from four occupied Crimean museums to Ukraine for safekeeping until the de-occupation of Crimea.

Read our earlier daily review here.

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