Russo-Ukrainian war, day 645: Ukraine confirms downing of Russian aircraft with US-supplied Patriot air defense system

Exclusives

Battle of Avdiivka: Russia strangles Ukrainian stronghold. Avdiivka stands firm against the Russian onslaught even though the forces of the opposing sides are unequal.

Artillery chief: 1 in 5 shells now “made in Ukraine”. Ukraine currently produces 20% of the shells it uses, with the number reaching 50% for certain ammunition types, General Baranov says

Military

Frontline report: Ukrainian counterattack follows Russia’s failed wave of attacks north of Avdiivka. Near Donetsk’s Avdiivka, Russian forces launched a wave of attacks on the northern flank but lost ground as Ukrainian drones strategically targeted soldiers in trenches and near demolished buildings. Substantial casualties were inflicted on the attackers.

Ukraine’s Air Force confirms Patriot use to down three helicopters, two jets in Russia in May. Ukraine’s Air Force spox confirms downing five Russian airframes in May with Patriot missiles. He expects more drone activity this winter, citing Russia’s 1,000+ missile and 1,000+ drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure last winter.

Russian forces dismantle Holodomor memorials in occupied Kherson Oblast. Russian occupation administration referred to the Holodomor monuments as purported “tools of manipulation,” supposedly designed to incite hatred towards Russia.

Newsweek: Satellite images show Crimea lost naval defense line in storm. Satellite photos show that Crimea lost a naval defense line in a storm that battered the annexed Black Sea peninsula, Newsweek has reported.

Ukrainska Pravda: SBU behind explosion on Russia’s strategic railway leading to China. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) carried out an operation resulting in the explosion and disruption of a major railroad line in Russia’s far eastern republic of Buryatia on 30 November, a crucial link between Russia and China.

Ukraine destroys 14/20 explosive drones in Russia’s nighttime attack. Russia attacks Ukraine with 20 Shahed explosive drones and eight S-300 missiles at night; Ukraine downs 14 drones.

Russian missile attack on Donetsk’s Pokrovsk district kills one, injures 10 civilians, with four more trapped under the rubble. Russian missile attack with six S-300 missiles targeted Donetsk’s Pokrovsk district last night, leading to one civilian fatality and 10 injuries amid a simultaneous drone air assault.

ISW report: Russian forces in Kherson Oblast hindered by lack of command structure. Russian forces’ inability to establish a cohesive command structure in Kherson Oblast contributes to declining morale and combat capabilities, per ISW.

UK intel: Russia deploys re-established airborne division in Kherson Oblast amid Ukrainian assaults. Russia’s deployment of the 104th Guards Airborne Division in Kherson Oblast revealed in the UK Defense Ministry’s intelligence update. Russia probably bolsters its military presence in the area in response to Ukrainian activities on the Dnipro’s eastern bank.

Intelligence and Technology

Reuters: US postpones supply of long-range bombs to Ukraine until 2024. The US has pushed delivery of new long-range rocket-propelled bombs to Ukraine, adapted to strike at 160km range to 2024, according to the Pentagon and sources, Reuters has reported.

Ukraine’s FPV drone production nearly sixfold behind Russia’s amidst engineers shortage. With Ukraine’s current production at about 50,000 FPV drones per month, the significant gap to the army’s requirement of 200,000 drones calls for an extra 5,000 engineers.

International

Bloomberg: EU to unveil plan to tap frozen Russian assets in December, sources say. The European Commission reportedly plans to unveil its legislative proposal to impose a windfall tax on profits generated by the Russian frozen assets in December, according to Bloomberg.

France to increase ammunition supplies for Ukraine in 2024. France will continue its military assistance to Ukraine next year and increase its ammunition supply.

Associated Press: Hungary to oppose EU membership talks with Ukraine, minister says. Hungary will not support any European Union proposal to begin EU membership talks with Ukraine, said Gergely Gulyas, the chief of staff to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, according to Associated Press.

Sky News: EU Commission president says Ukraine should be part of discussions on EU defense strategy. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine’s military needs should be taken into account when it comes to planning a European defense strategy, Sky News has reported.

FT: EU helps sell on over 20% of liquefied natural gas imports from Russia. More than a fifth of Russia’s liquefied natural gas reaching Europe is reshipped to other parts of the world, including China, Japan and Bangladesh, according to data from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a think-tank, the Financial Times has informed.

Political and Legal Developments

Ukraine includes 30 companies in Russian war sponsor’s list . The National Agency on Corruption Prevention has included over 30 companies in the list of international sponsors of the war since the February full-scale attack on Ukraine, the head of the agency, Oleksandr Novikov, announced at a briefing in Zhytomyr, Ukrinform has reported. 

Milka maker faces German backlash over Russia business. Mondelez claims that the cookies and chocolates it sells in Russia are part of a “normal diet.” “Sounds like a lousy alibi,” said Bild.

New Developments

Poll reveals strong US public support for arming Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan. A significant 59% of Americans support providing military aid to Ukraine, while 30% oppose it, according to the annual Reagan Institute poll.

Ukroboronprom refutes claim of exporting spare parts to Russia. Ukroboronprom stated that none of its enterprises have exported aircraft and helicopter parts to a Russian company via third countries.

Read the daily review for Wed Nov 29 2023 here

As of 30 Nov 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • Personnel: 328760 (+1180)
  • Tanks: 5551 (+13)
  • APV: 10340 (+28)
  • Artillery systems: 7909 (+1)
  • MLRS: 910
  • Anti-aircraft systems: 600
  • Aircraft: 323
  • Helicopters: 324
  • UAV: 5954 (+10)
  • Cruise missiles : 1567
  • Warships/boats: 22
  • Submarines: 1
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 10361 (+113)

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