Russo-Ukrainian war, day 652: New aid for Ukraine drops to lowest level since January 2022, analysis shows

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Exclusive

Putin declares goal to reshape global order, funds major military surge. In his previous speeches, Putin laid bare his intention to destroy Ukraine. Unfortunately, he was not taken seriously

Inside Ukraine’s campaign to crush Russia with combat drones. Kyiv has gone into overdrive domestically producing reconnaissance, combat, and kamikaze drones to counter Russia’s assaults and gain aerial superiority, but with the invader’s overwhelming resources, competition remains tough

Why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed: WP analysis in 7 minutes. After 100 days and 20 kilometers retaken instead of wargamed Azov Sea advance, US and Ukrainian officials have starkly different answers for “”why””

Military

Minister: Ukraine to partner with US firms to produce 155mm shells domestically. Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries noted that setting up 155mm shell production will take “at least two, maximum three years” given the technologies required.

ISW: Russian forces take minor gains near Avdiivka. Geolocated footage showed Russian military “marginally advanced in the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka,” ISW said.

Frontline report: Russian military shift tactics with armor assault near Avdiivka. After the destruction of infantry without armor support in recent weeks, Russia switched tactics with a heavy but unsuccessful mechanized assault.

Ukraine Support Tracker: aid for Ukraine hits lowest level since January 2022. Latest report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy highlights an 87% drop in new aid to Ukraine from Aug-Oct 2023, the lowest since Jan 2022, indicating a significant decrease in support compared to the same period last year.

As of 07 Dec 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 336230 (+1120)
    • Tanks: 5618 (+18)
    • APV: 10482 (+26)
    • Artillery systems: 8045 (+21)
    • MLRS: 919
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 605
    • Aircraft: 324
    • Helicopters: 324
    • UAV: 6116 (+33)
    • Cruise missiles : 1571 (+1)
    • Warships/boats: 22
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 10561 (+29)

Intelligence and technology

British Intel: Russian mid-level officers gain more combat experience in war against Ukraine. Over 60% of a new intake of Russian officers at the Russian General Staff Academy has combat experience gained during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Ukraine dismisses reports of thermobaric warheads on upgraded Shahed-136 explosive drones. Ukraine denies thermobaric warheads in Russia’s upgraded Shahed drones; confirms new high-explosive warhead. Defense Express investigates the warhead’s origin, challenging earlier reports.

International

Germany grants additional €17 million for affordable housing loans for IDPs. With Germany’s latest funding, Ukraine plans to issue 400 new subsidized housing loans in 2024 for internally displaced citizens.

Australia boosts Ukraine’s defense with additional Bushmaster armored vehicles. “Proud to see the role of Bushmasters recognized among key military assistance provided to Ukraine. And more are on their way,” Australian Ambassador to Ukraine said.

Ukraine to receive more air defense systems by end of 2023. The US Navy delivers Ukraine with a new truck-mounted weapon system specifically designed to shoot down drones before year’s end.

US Justice Department files first-ever US war crimes charges against Russian military. Historic case marks the first US war crimes charges against Russian soldiers.: four Russia-affiliated military personnel face war crimes charges, including torture, for their actions during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Japan to provide $ 4.5 billion to Ukraine. The financial support also includes $1 bn for Ukriane’s humanitarian and reconstruction assistance.

Humanitarian and social impact

Eight deported Ukrainian children back from Russia. Eight more of the estimated 20,000 Ukrainian children illegally deported to Russia have returned home on 6 December

Russian night attacks kill a truck driver, injure 5 civilians. Ukraine’s aid defenses shot down 15 of the 18 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs, the main areas of which were Khmelnytskyi and Odesa oblasts.

Political and legal developments

UK accuses Russia’s FSB of years-long cyber attacks. The NCSC identifies Star Blizzard as likely part of Russia’s FSB, engaged in cyber-attacks since 2015. Activities include spear-phishing UK MPs, leaking 2019 election documents, and targeting key institutions like the Institute for Statecraft.

G7 to impose sanctions on Russian diamonds by early 2024. In previous sanction packages, Russia faced bans on exports of coal, gas, gold, vodka and caviar. However, diamonds represent one of Russia’s top ten non-energy exports by value, with 2021 diamond exports totaling over $4.5 bn.

US Senate Republicans block $110 billion Ukraine and Israel aid bill. US Senate Republicans vote against a $110 billion aid bill for Ukraine and Israel, insisting on immigration reforms, raising questions about aid’s future, with Biden urging action to counter Putin’s agenda.

New developments

Ukraine launches public database tracking foreign components in Russian, Iranian weaponry. The War and Sanctions portal currently features a list of over 2000 components that Russia and Iran utilize in various missiles, UAVs, electronic warfare systems, and numerous other forms of weaponry and military technology.

Ukraine to transport trucks stuck at Polish border by train. Ukraine’s state railway company, Ukrzaliznytsia, has started transporting 23 trucks stuck at the Polish border due to an ongoing blockade by Polish truck drivers.

Bloomberg: Russia’s oil export income surges despite sanctions, fueling war effort. Russia’s monthly net oil revenues nearly doubled between April and October, reaching levels comparable to those before its invasion of Ukraine.

Read our earlier daily review here

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