Russo-Ukrainian war, day 739: Leaked document reveals Putin’s punishing terms for peace

Exclusive

From Soviet flags to TikTok stars: How Russia poisons Italy across generations. Nearly 30 years after the Soviet collapse, its symbols and distorted history mysteriously resurface in Italy – from textbooks to protests – as Russian propaganda and Kremlin-sponsored influencers sway Italian youth on social media.

“Old Guard” stands with Putin’s propaganda in France. High-profile former French presidents, prime ministers and intelligence chiefs vocally back Kremlin talking points on Ukraine.

Military

Military: Ukraine stabilizes front west of Avdiivka, holds key villages. Although fighting continues, Ukraine has managed to stabilize the situation in frontline towns west of Avdiivka as troops withstand Russian ground assaults and weakened air strikes, as per the Ukrainian military.

British Intel: Russia faces highest average daily personnel losses in February since start of war. The average Russian personnel losses stands at 983 per day, which, according to the UK intel, reflects Russia’s commitment to mass and attritional warfare

ISW: Russia ready to risk aviation losses to advance in Avdiivka direction. Previous Russian aircraft losses have prompted Russian forces to temporarily decrease aviation activity throughout Ukraine, according to ISW. However, ISW said that the “15 aircraft and skilled pilots lost in two weeks are not negligible for Russia,” given the estimated total of 300 Sukhoi aircraft in its airbase.

Intelligence and technology

Germany probes Russia’s leak of military call discussing Taurus missiles for Ukraine. German authorities probe potential Russian eavesdropping and disclosure of video conference call where German officers discussed Taurus missile and other potential weapon supplies for Ukraine.

NK Pro: Satellite images show halt in North Korean weapons loads to Russia. The halt in North Korean weapons shipments to Russia, seen since 12 Feb., could be due to production or logistical issues. However, transportation is possible through air/rail, according to the North Korea-focused outlet NK Pro.

International

Ambassador: EU “very impatient” over delayed $60 billion US aid to Ukraine. As $60 billion in Ukraine aid stalls in Congress, the EU’s ambassador to the US urges approval, saying Ukrainian people are fighting for Western values and Putin must not outlast support.

Lithuania: Cars registered in Russia must leave Lithuania by 11 March or will be confiscated. Lithuanian Customs sets a deadline of 11 March, for cars with Russian registration to exit Lithuania and the EU or face penalties, including confiscation of vehicles, following EU sanctions. Exceptions exist for Russian citizens transiting to/from Kaliningrad.

Polish protesters block all six checkpoints with Ukraine. Over 2,400 trucks now waiting to enter Ukraine. At most checkpoints, trucks are only allowed into Ukraine.

Humanitarian and social impact

Death toll due to Russian attack on Odesa rises to 10. Rescuers found the body of an almost one-year-old baby next to a woman’s body on the morning of 3 March, a day after the Russian attack.

Russian attacks kill 1, injure 7 over past day. Russian attacks also damaged residential buildings, cars, greenhouses, and gas pipelines in Kharkiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk oblasts over the past day,

Political and legal developments

WSJ: Document from 2022 reveals Putin’s punishing terms for Ukraine peace. A leaked draft peace treaty from April 2022 reveals the harsh terms Putin sought to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Ukraine’s permanent neutrality, strict limits on its military, and the retention of Crimea by Russia.

Read the daily review for Sat 3 Mar 2024 here

As of 03 Mar 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • Personnel: 416800 (+1160)
  • Tanks: 6640 (+16)
  • APV: 12639 (+28)
  • Artillery systems: 10188 (+835)
  • MLRS: 1003
  • Anti-aircraft systems: 696
  • Aircraft: 347 (+1)
  • Helicopters: 325
  • UAV: 7843 (+14)
  • Cruise missiles: 1915
  • Warships/boats: 25
  • Submarines: 1
  • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 13332 (+65)