Russo-Ukrainian war, day 786: Russian missiles strike Dnipro, killing 8, but Ukraine retaliates

Exclusives

Media sources: Ukraine used old S-200 long-range SAM system to down Russia’s Tu-22M3 strategic bomber for the first time. Ukraine claims shooting down a Russian Tu-22M strategic bomber. Intelligence sources say Ukraine used the old S-200 SAM system to hit the aircraft from 300 kilometers away.

Ukraine destroys Russia’s Dzhankoi helicopter base air defenses, enabling further deep strikes on occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s ATACMS missile attack on Russia’s airfield in northern Crimea on 17 April reportedly destroyed multiple air defense assets, potentially enabling future air attacks on the occupied peninsula from the north.

Military

Russian morning missile strike hits residential building in Dnipro, killing civilians and children. The missiles also hit the cities of Synelnykove, Pavlohrad, and Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk oblast, killing and wounding people there. Air defense shot down nine missiles over the Dnipro Oblast.

First satellite images capture Ukraine’s strike on Russian-occupied Dzhankoi airbase. The images reveal damage near the Russian ammunition depot and air defense systems.

Ukraine intercepts Russian bomber, Kh-22 cruise missiles in historic first. Reportedly, a modified Soviet-era S-200 air defense system was used to shoot down the Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. Two Kh-22 quasi-ballistic missiles were intercepted with unknown weapons

Frontline report: Ukraine hammers Russian supply lines as Kupiansk offensive loses steam. Seizing on a lull in Russia’s months-long offensive, Ukrainian forces have launched a series of punishing strikes on ammunition depots, bridges, and command posts, aiming to starve the invaders of vital supplies.

As of 19 Apr 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 457830 (+870)
    • Tanks: 7205 (+9)
    • APV: 13852 (+17)
    • Artillery systems: 11658 (+21)
    • MLRS: 1046
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 762 (+2)
    • Aircraft: 347
    • Helicopters: 325
    • UAV: 9311 (+27)
    • Cruise missiles : 2096 (+3)
    • Warships/boats: 26
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 15671 (+53)

Intelligence and technology

Stoltenberg: NATO to step up air defense aid to Ukraine. President Zelenskyy informed allies that Kyiv needs at least seven Patriot batteries or equivalent systems.

Belgian PM says first F-16s to be delivered to Ukraine by summer. The first F-16 multi-role fighter jets with trained pilots is to be delivered to Ukraine by early summer. This was announced at a briefing in Brussels by Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo.

UK intel: Russia improved naval infrastructure in Novorossiysk, where it relocated its ships from Sevastopol away from Ukraine’s strikes. To avoid Ukrainian sea-borne attack, Russia largely moved its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, where it is improving infrastructure to support long-term basing, per UK intelligence.

Ukraine intel: Russia to start offensive aiming at seizing Luhansk, Donetsk oblasts in July. As Ukrainian intelligence expects a major Russian offensive in June, the ISW warns of Russian battlefield gains due to ongoing Ukrainian military shortages, exacerbated by stalled US aid.

Ukraine to mass produce “Shmavic,” domestic replacement for Chinese DJI Mavic UAV. Ukrainian company developed “Shmavic” – domestic analogue of Chinese DJI Mavic drone popular with military. Indigenous drone cheaper, more resilient against EW, coming soon to Ukrainian armed forces. Serial production coming soon.

Istories: Russia’s arms industry still importing vital foreign CNC machines despite sanctions. Türkiye, the UAE. and China are acting as key conduits for Western technology feeding Russia’s arms production, an investigation has found.

International

“Within days” – Pentagon set to quickly send Ukraine arms after US Congress approval. The US package could include air defense and artillery capabilities.

US House overcomes key procedural step, clearing path to vote on Ukraine aid bill. The bills providing military aid and other assistance to Kyiv will be voted on 20 April evening, alongside aid packages for Israel and Taiwan.

German Quantum-Systems opens its drone factory in Ukraine. German company Quantum-Systems GmbH’s drone factory is going to manufacture 1,000 reconnaissance drones per year, including the production of spare parts.

IMF: Ukraine needs $ 42 bn budgetary support in 2024 amid Russian invasion. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva ensured that “these needs would be met,” referring to the countries that stepped up to assist Ukraine.

Norway to provide almost 6 million Euro to support Ukrainian NGOs. After announcing 64 million Euro for humanitarian aid in Ukraine and Moldova, Norway will additionally provide 6 million Euro as part of a grant program for Ukrainian NGOs.

Australia extends zero tariffs on Ukrainian goods until 2026. The Australian government extends tariff relief on Ukrainian goods until 2026 as part of its continued support amidst Russia’s invasion.

Humanitarian and social impact

Drone strike hits Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant again, IAEA denied in site access – Grossi. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported a third drone attack on the training center at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant site within the last two weeks. “The IAEA team was denied access to assess the incident at the training center,” the organization reported.

Political and legal developments

CIA Director warns Ukraine can lose war in 2024 without US aid. William Burns warned American lawmakers that without US aid, more Ukrainian cities could become like Avdiivka, recently destroyed and occupied by Russians, and Ukraine could lose this year.

Ukraine is ignoring US warnings to end drone operations inside Russia. Although the US has asked Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, Ukraine is not planning to dial down operations. On the contrary, it has now developed drones which can strike deep into enemy territory.

Polish PM Tusk urges farmers to stop blocking the Ukrainian border. “We cannot in any way harm Ukraine in a situation where the fate of the war is being decided,” he said after the European Council summit in Brussels.

German Vice Chancellor in Kyiv with a delegation from German defense and energy industries. Frustrated by the slow pace of aid and supply commitments from allies, German Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action Robert Habeck is in Kyiv on a surprise visit with a German delegation from the defense and energy industries.

New developments

Drones attack Russian factory that produced missile fuel. Geolocated footage suggests a workshop was on fire at the Kamensk chemical factory

Read our earlier daily review here.