Russo-Ukrainian war, day 792: White House says US can sustain aid through 2024 while Russia targets Balakliya train station

Exclusive

US sanctions deep freeze Russia’s Arctic-2 LNG hub. Here’s what can kill it for good. Russia’s flagship LNG project is having a tanker problem, courtesy of America. But it still stands a chance, courtesy of China.

Military

Frontline report: Ukrainians retake the initiative and gain ground. Russian forces are beginning to show fatigue both in terms of equipment and personnel resources, while Ukrainian forces continue to show a remarkable ability to repel Russian attacks in the area.

Military: Russia suffers 85% of losses in the Eastern sector. According to the spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational-strategic grouping, soldiers of the Tavria Air Assault Brigade destroyed more than 300 pieces of equipment in six months of fighting in one of the areas.

UK defense chief: Ukraine to increase long-range attacks inside Russia. UK defense chief Radakin believes Ukraine will increase long-range attacks inside Russia, as the West’s aid will help reshape the land fight. He notes challenges but points to longer trends favoring Kyiv.

As of 25 Apr 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 462980 (+1040)
    • Tanks: 7255 (+13)
    • APV: 13942 (+14)
    • Artillery systems: 11836 (+28)
    • MLRS: 1049 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 772 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 348
    • Helicopters: 325
    • UAV: 9449 (+10)
    • Cruise missiles : 2118 (+1)
    • Warships/boats: 26
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 15949 (+57)

Intelligence and technology

ISW: Russia may have prepared for ATACMS threat due to US aid delays. ISW suggests that Russian forces might have already taken measures to adapt to the potential Ukrainian ATACMS strikes after Ukraine first used them in October 2023.

Pistorius warns of Russia’s surplus arms production. “”One could be naive and say he [Putin] is doing this out of caution. I, as a more skeptical person, would say in this case, he is doing this because he might have something in mind or could have something,”” he said.

Ukrainian pilots undergo six-month basic training in France before advancing to F-16. Young Ukrainian pilots, aged 20 to 22, are undergoing a six-month initial training phase in France, preparing for subsequent specialized F-16 training in the USA or European nations with these aircraft.

International

Russia poses an existential threat to Europe, warns President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Von der Leyen affirmed Europe’s unwavering support for Ukraine and urged EU member countries to remain steadfast in their solidarity in the face of Russian aggression.

European Parliament: release Galaxy Leader crew, including Ukrainians, captured by Houthis. The European Parliament called on the EU to take immediate measures to free the hostages taken by Yemeni Houthis during the attack on the Japanese merchant ship Galaxy Leader, including three Ukrainian citizens.

Reuters: G7 officials discuss options to expedite financial aid for Ukraine amid future funding uncertainties. Amid mounting uncertainties surrounding Ukraine’s financial future, a proposal by the United States to harness future interest earned on frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine is gaining momentum among the Group of Seven nations.

Zelenskyy gave three arguments for Republicans not voting for aid to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said more than a hundred Republican congressmen who did not vote for the latest legislative proposal to aid Ukraine should know exactly how those funds are being spent.

Kuleba: “”Hallelujah”” for US aid, but Ukraine needs more to defeat Russia. Ukrainian FM stressed that although the renewed US military aid is vital, only a united front of Ukraine and its allies can stop Russia.

White House: US can sustain Ukraine aid through 2024. On April 24, President Biden signed a $61 billion Ukraine military aid bill, ending months of intense negotiations amid Republican divisions in Congress.

Hahn: Potential 20% EU budget hike from Ukraine’s accession only 0.2% of economic output, yet quick membership unlikely. EU Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn says Ukraine’s potential EU accession could increase the EU budget by up to 20%, which is only 0.2% of European economic output, noting Ukraine’s significant economic potential.

Denmark allocates new funding for renewable energy infrastructure in Ukraine, strengthening green initiatives. On 23 April, Ukraine and Denmark signed a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at fostering long-term cooperation and facilitating the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Humanitarian and social impact

Russian missile strike targets Balakliya train station, wounding ten. Of the 10 civilians wounded, three women and four men suffered shrapnel and blast injuries.

74% of Ukrainian employers experience a workforce shortage. The problems in Ukrainian labor market were exacerbated by migration and mobilization.

Torture and abuse: Grim reality for civilians in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. An annual human rights report by the US Department of State exposes Russia’s strategy of violence used by its troops against civilians in the war in Ukraine.

At least 13 civilians injured by Russian attacks. Yesterday and last night, Russian military strikes across Ukraine left 13 civilians injured and caused significant damage to homes and infrastructure in several regions, including Donetsk, Kherson and Cherkasy, local authorities say.

Political and legal developments

“”A difficult question””: US State Department answers whether it will help Ukraine return men from abroad. The US State Department has called the suspension of consular services abroad for Ukrainian men of mobilization age a “”complicated issue””, but acknowledges that Ukraine has the right to determine its policy.

Ukrainian agriculture minister submits resignation amidst allegations of land fraud. Investigations show that Solskyi and the head of Geocadastre manipulated legal processes to unlawfully transfer state land to private entities.

CEPA: Russia’s strikes on Ukraine’s gas storage threaten Europe’s reserves, Kyiv’s transit exit plan. Researchers predict that some European states will exert pressure on Kyiv to maintain “”business as usual”” with Moscow.

“”This is a civic duty””: Polish Defence Minister backs Ukraine’s consular service suspension for military-age men abroad . Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz notes he is not surprised by this decision considering the immense need of Ukraine for new soldiers on the frontline.

Pope again calls for negotiations, which would freeze war to Russia’s benefit. Pope Francis has reiterated his call for negotiation and peace between warring countries, specifically mentioning Ukraine and Gaza, without directly urging Russia to cease its aggression or withdraw its troops.

New developments

Politico: China “”in fact picking a side”” in Russia’s war against Ukraine, says US Ambassador to NATO. Julianne Smith, the US Ambassador to NATO, says China cannot be considered neutral in the Russo-Ukrainian war, noting that without Chinese equipment and technology, Russia would struggle to continue its aggression.

Media: Macron urges stronger European defense, warns against overreliance on US. French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a stirring address at Sorbonne University in Paris on 25 April, urging for a more robust and unified European defense strategy.

Ukrainian Spring 2024 festival in Sweden promotes Ukraine-Europe cultural unity, honors fallen artists killed in Russia’s war. The festival “”Ukrainian Spring 2024″” kicked off in Stockholm, bringing together a series of 12 cultural events to pay tribute to Ukrainian artists who lost their lives on the front lines battling Russian invaders.

Read the daily review for Thu Apr 25 2024 here.