Russo-Ukrainian war, day 794: U.S. paves way to seize $300 billion in Russian assets; EU to begin Ukraine accession talks in June

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Russia must pay: US paves way for historic seizure of $300bn in reparations for Ukraine. The ball is now in the EU’s court, as the confiscation of Russian assets becomes a matter of political will

“”Now go win the fight,”” US tells Ukraine, but withholds air power and long-range weapons. Despite restarting aid, the US is still denying Ukraine key capabilities like F-16 fighter jets and long-range strike weapons that Kyiv says are crucial to launching successful counteroffensives.

Military

Russians establish foothold in part of Ocheretyne in eastern Ukraine, there is information about capture of Berdychi. Russian forces have gained a foothold in part of the village of Ocheretyne in Donetsk Oblast, while DeepState analysts report the capture of the village of Berdychi in the Ocheretyne hromada.

Ukrainian forces repel seven Russian attacks near Krynky and in the Orikhiv sector in southern Ukraine. In the operational zone of the Southern Defense Forces, Ukrainian defenders repelled four attacks by Russian forces on the left bank of the Dnipro near Krynok and three in the Orikhiv sector – near Staromayorske and Robotyno.

Ukraine strikes Russian oil refineries, airfield overnight in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) carried out strikes on a military airfield in Kushchevskaya & two oil refineries in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai overnight. The airfield housed aircraft, radar & electronic warfare equipment.

Frontline report: Ukrainian Forces halt Russian advance near Avdiivka, battle for strategic city Kostyantynivka. Russian forces suffered significant losses in their attempts to outflank Ukrainian defenses near Avdiivka, with geolocated footage revealing the destruction of at least two D-30 howitzers, three MSTA-S self-propelled guns, a Grad-21 multiple rocket launcher, and a T-90M tank.

Syrskyi: Situation on frontline “”has tendency toward escalation””. At the 21st Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi warned of an escalating situation on the frontlines. He urged allies for timely delivery of missiles, ammo, weapons & equipment to counter Russian airstrikes.

As of 28 Apr 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 466150 (+1096)
    • Tanks: 7279 (+11)
    • APV: 13991 (+20)
    • Artillery systems: 11948 (+43)
    • MLRS: 1050 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 776 (+1)
    • Aircraft: 348
    • Helicopters: 325
    • UAV: 9507 (+22)
    • Cruise missiles : 2124
    • Warships/boats: 26
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 16065 (+46)

Intelligence and technology

Ukrainian forces dismiss AP report on Abrams tank withdrawal due to drone threats. The tanks “”are performing excellently on the battlefield and we certainly have no intention of hiding from the enemy what usually makes them hide,”” Ukrainian forces wrote.

The Telegraph: UK to develop its hypersonic missile by 2030 to catch up with China, Russia, and US. Tasked with creating missiles capable of withstanding the blistering speeds of hypersonic flight, engineers are facing significant challenges, including the need to invent new materials for such missiles from scratch.

Convictions for murder among Russian soldiers, veterans rose by 900% – British intel. 116 cases in 2023 demonstrate a dramatic increase from the 13 convictions in 2022 and 11 in 2021, signaling a new trend within the Russian military ranks.

Canada becomes the second country to commit to funding Ukrainian weapons production. This contribution is part of the ZBROYARI global fundraising campaign aimed at raising $10 billion this year for the production of Ukrainian weaponry.

Canada to provide Ukraine with over $ 2.3 mn for drone production. It’s the first time that Canada is providing funding for the production of military drones directly in Ukraine.

International

EU envoy hopes for start of accession talks with Kyiv in late June: Ukraine ready. The EU ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Maternova, has said that Ukraine is ready to start negotiations on joining the EU and hopes that they will start at the end of June.

Poll: Ukraine tops European war readiness; Asia’s determination high. Armenia and Saudi Arabia showcase an almost unanimous resolve to fight if called upon, a sentiment echoed robustly in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan.

Ukraine ranks in top 6 of 43 countries for belief in democracy. 64% of Ukrainian respondents believe “”democracy may have its flaws, but it is the best system of governance.”” In Russia – 22%.

Humanitarian and social impact

UNICEF reports 40% increase in children killed in Ukraine this year due to war. In the first quarter of 2024 alone, 25 children have been killed in Russian attacks, with the death toll including infants as young as two months.

Russia hits 4 energy power plants, hospital in Kharkiv overnight. The Russian attack on Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and Kharkiv overnight into 27 April injured two people.

Political and legal developments

Families of Ukrainian soldiers rally for clear demobilization terms in Kyiv. Among the slogans on the placards were, “”Mr. President, it’s time to thank the military by setting fair service terms,”” “”Volunteered once, enlisted for life,”” “”A day at war does not equal a day in civilian life.””

German media publish Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement that could have been signed at the beginning of the war. A few weeks after the full-scale Russian invasion, there could have been a peaceful solution. This is the result of a draft agreement that both warring parties had negotiated until April 15, 2022. According to the document, Kyiv and Moscow largely agreed on conditions for an end to the war.

New developments

European MEP fears weakening support for Ukraine in case of success of “”the Kremlin’s votes””. Viola von Cramon, Member of the European Parliament (MEP), fears that if radical parties strengthen their presence in the European Parliament following the European elections, support for Ukraine may weaken.

ISW: Ukraine’s path to regaining territory hinges on West, Russia, Kyiv decisions. Ukraine’s path to regaining occupied territories hinges on future decisions by the West (providing sufficient aid), Russia (scale of forecasted offensive), and Ukraine’s ability to leverage Western aid.

Politico: Zelenskyy told Johnson that without American aid, Ukraine would survive “”until April””. President Zelenskyy’s bleak prediction that Ukraine would run out of weapons by March or April was a key factor behind Speaker Johnson’s decision to send military aid, despite opposition from his own party, Politico reports, citing sources.

Jerry Heil and alyona alyona embark on Eurovision journey with “”women power”” anthem. As preparations for Eurovision unfold, a fundraising campaign represented by both performers aims to rebuild a gymnasium destroyed by a Russian missile, symbolizing hope for the future.

Read our earlier daily review here.